In this edition of the revamped series Head 2 Head, we take an in-depth, by the numbers look at the main event UFC 204, as Middleweight champion Michael Bisping rematches Dan Henderson.
On October 8 at the Manchester Arena in Manchester, England Bisping (29-7) get a chance at revenge for his highlight reel UFC 100 loss to #13 Henderson (32-14).
Using FightMetrics, we look at the following areas to try to determine the most likely outcome of this intriguing encounter at UFC 204: –
SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy
SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)
TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes
TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy
TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)
Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Up until UFC 204; before Nate Diaz broke the record, Bisping lead the way for total strikes landed (1871) inside the Octagon. As it stands the Brit (SLpM: 4.42) has the edge, landing 2.2 strike more per minute then Henderson (SLpM: 2.40).
It is this ability that has seen “The Count” rack up four successive wins against C.B. Dollaway, Thales Leites, Anderson Silva. Also, Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 to capture the middleweight title in a fight where he landed 21 out 50 significant strikes thrown to KO the former champion in 3.36 of the first round.
Despite seemingly being at a disadvantage in this area, the Team Quest trained fighter lands his lands BIG resulting in 50 percent of his wins coming by way of Knockout, the most famous of which coming at UFC 100 against his opponent during the early hour of Sunday morning.
Advantage: Bisping
Significant Striking Accuracy
You would be forgiven for thinking that with the champion having a distinct advantage in the Significant Strikes Landed per Minute department that he would also hold the advantage here too, but you would be wrong.
Henderson (Str. Acc.: 48%) has landed 10 percent more strikes then Bisping (Str. Acc.: 38%) and it is this accuracy that saw the 46-year old at yet another highlight reel knockout against Hector Lombard on the same card that his opponent ripped the title from from Rockhold.
Advantage: Henderson
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Neither competitors have an advantage here with both the Brit and the American absorbing on average 2.58 per minutes each.
Advantage: None
Significant Strike Defence
It is abundantly clear that during the course of his career Bisping has used his superior footwork and gas tank to avoid being hit by his opponents and as a result his Significant Strike Defence is 17% (Str. Def: 66%) better then Henderson (Str. Def: 49%).
It is this disadvantage in this key area which has seen Hendo go 4-6 in his last 10 bouts, losing to Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort and current UFC Light-Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier to name a few.
Advantage: Bisping
Average Takedowns Landed (per 15 minutes)
Former 2x Olympian Henderson (TD Avg.: 1.58) is able to secure on average 0.40 more takedowns every 15 minutes than Bisping (TD Avg.: 1.18).
In comparison Bisping likes to keep the fight standing, but the 37-year old has only seen it fit to take the fight to ground once in his last 10-fights and that was against Brian Stann at UFC 152.
Advantage: Henderson
Takedown Accuracy
With Henderson having the advantage in average takedowns landed per 15 minutes it stands to reason that he would come out on top in takedown accuracy (TD Acc.: 54%) and that logic bears fruit here with Hendo holding an 11 percent advantage of Bisping (TD Acc.: 43%)
Despite this advantage the American has only managed to land a single takedown in his last 10 bouts against Mauricio Rua at UFC 139
Advantage: Henderson
Takedown Average
It stands to reason that if Henderson has the edge in takedown accuracy department he would also have the edge in the average number takedowns he has scored and this is indeed the case with the American (TD Avg.: 1.58) averaging 0.40 more takedowns then then Bisping (TD Avg.: 1.18).
Advantage: Henderson
Takedown Defence
Both fighters have impressive takedown defence, but surprisingly it is Bisping who comes out on top in this area (64% TD Def.) despite hailing from a land not know for its wrestling chops. As a result he has managed to defend 7 percent more attempts to take him down during his career compared to Henderson (57% TD Def.).
Advantage: Bisping
Average Submissions Attempted (per 15 minutes)
Neither fighters choose to draw from the submission well very often with both averaging just 0.4 submission attempts every 15 minutes.
Advantage: None
Conclusion
Despite being tipped as the underdog in this fight the overall the stats shows that it is Henderson who is the man with the advantage, specifically in significant striking accuracy and in general when trying to take the fight to the ground. But with the champion riding a four-fight win streak and looking to remain the champion surely this edge most come to play in this fight..
Let us know who wins, Bisping or Henderson? Comment below.
