In the first edition of revamped MMA Plus series Head 2 Head, we take an in-depth, by the numbers look at the best fights in combat sports.
On October 1 in Portland, Oregon, #3 ranked Bantamweight John Lineker (28-7) faces John Dodson (19-7) who currently sits at #10 in the UFC rankings.
UFC Fight Night 96 takes place at the Moda Center.
Using FightMetrics, we look at the following areas to try to determine the most likely outcome of this intriguing Bantamweight clash at UFC Fight Night 96: –
SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy
SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)
TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes
TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy
TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)
Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
In this area Lineker (5.68 SLpM) has the advantage executing just over 2.5 strikes more per minute than “The Magician” (3.17 SLpM).
Going back to his last fight against Michael McDonald at UFC Fight Night 91, Lineker showed this distinct advantage in his stoppage victory. The Brazilian would land a total of 26 significant strikes on the way to KO’ing his opponent McDonald in 2.43 of round one.
Despite being second best in this area, Jackson-Wink trained Dodson showed his significance in a 37 second demolition of Manny Gamburyan at UFC on Fox 19 this past April Although a short fight, Dodson displayed his accuracy, landing 84% of his significant strikes (16 of 19)
Advantage: Lineker
Significant Striking Accuracy
Once again it is the man with the proclaimed “Hands of Stone” (41% Str. Acc.) who comes out on top in the stats over Dodson (38% Str. Acc.).
It is this accuracy that has allowed the American Top Team fighter to rack up five successive wins over the likes of Alptekin Ozkilic, Ian McCall and Francisco Rivera.
Even though 32-year-old Dodson is once again second best, his significant striking is definitely a feared asset, one which even stumbled Flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson.
He has used his striking to stop four of his last 10 opponents – one more than Lineker – including former UFC Bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw, Jussier da Silva, Darrell Montague and previously noted, Gamburyan.
Advantage: Lineker
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
The tide turns in this areas with the Dodson (3.40 SApM) proving to be the more evasive, absorbing 0.56 less damage then his opponent Lineker (3.96 SApM) who eats almost four significant strikes per minute.
Despite this edge, Dodson has still has a record of 8-2 compared to Lineker’s 9-1 over the last 10 bouts. However, both of Dodson’s losses came against 125 champion and pound-for-pound kingpin “Mighty Mouse”.
Advantage: Dodson
Significant Strike Defence
It’s even between both fighters in the significant strike defence with both Lineker and Dodson fending off 58% attempted damage.
Advantage: None
Average Takedowns Landed (per 15 minutes)
With both men relying heavily on their striking, the average number of takedowns landed every 15 minutes are pretty low.
But once again it is John Dodson (0.99 TD Avg) securing seven takedowns in the last 10-fights, which was 0.27 more then John Lineker (0.72 TD Avg) who has landed five takedowns over the same duration.
Advantage: Dodson
Takedown Accuracy
It is clear from the stats, that on the rare occasion that the fighters try to take it to the ground, the Brazilian is more effective. Lineker has 62% takedown accuracy, but has only landed three takedowns in his last five fights. two against Ozkilic and one on Rob Font.
In comparison, Dodson has landed 38% of his takedown attempts, slamming Timothy Elliott (2), Johnson (1) and John Moraga (1) since 2011.
Advantage: Lineker
Takedown Defence
Both fighters have impressive takedown defence, but it is Dodson who owns the superiority in this area (84% TD Def.). He has defended 14 percent more attempts to take him down during his career compared to Lineker (70% TD Def.).
Advantage: Dodson
Average Submissions Attempted (per 15 minutes)
Clearly both fighters strengths lies on in the stand-up department, but it is Lineker averaging 0.9 per 15 minutes. Dodson averages 0 over the same period.
Advantage: Dodson
Conclusion
Overall the stats shows that Dodson is the man with the advantage, especially when it comes to his wrestling. In the striking department though, it is the Lineker who statistically is the most dangerous.
Let us know who wins, Dodson or Lineker? Comment below.
