The MMA Plus team present their predictions for the main card bouts of UFC on Fox 18 which takes place in Newark, New Jersey; headlined by a a light heavyweight contenders clash between the number 2 ranked Anthony Johnson and the number 4 ranked Ryan Bader in a fight which could see the winner earn a shot at the UFC light heavyweight belt.
Light Heavyweight: Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader
Andreas
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is coming off a superlative knockout of Jimi Manuwa last September at UFC 191 and he once again finds himself on the cuff of a world title shot. Standing in his way is the supremely durable Ryan “Darth” Bader.
Similar to how he fought in his impressive first round knockout of Alexander Gustafsson last January, I expect Johnson to work his range early on, work on the inside, and land that ferocious right hand.
The technically sound Bader could offer serious problems for Johnson if he can get his wrestling away. The NCAA Division I All-American showed in his wins against Phil Davis and Rashad Evans that he possesses the tiresome skills to outwork his opponents over the distance.
There is some history between UFC Light-Heavyweight champion and Badar, a win for Power MMA Team man would definitely spice up the 205lb division.
Winner: Johnson – KO, Round 2
Barnaby
Following Anthony Johnson’s annihilation of Alexander Gustafsson, one of the very best at 205lbs, it looked like he could take on the world. Remember at that point he was in line to face Jon Jones at UFC 187 in a fight which many experts thought woukd derail Jones’ title run. But in the end he faced Daniel Cormier and got outworked, outmuscled and ultimately submitted. It was in this defeat that we saw the bad side of “Rumble” – the side which exposes his questionable cardio. This is the side which Ryan Bader will do everything within his power to reveal on Saturday. Bader has always been an elite wrestler but in recent years he has improved his standing game so much that he has propelled himself to the top of the light-heavyweight rankings. He is on an impressive five fight win streak and therefore definitely deserves his shot at the top.
Johnson is undoubtedly going to come out hard and fast, as the most powerful man in the division why wouldn’t he? If Bader can deal with the initial onslaught then he has a very good chance of ending this fight – the tear that Johnson goes on from the bell inevitably drains his gas tank, which is not very big to begin with.
Unfortunately for “Darth” I cannot see him taking the punishment which Johnson inflicts early on.
Winner: Johnson – KO, Round 1
Jorden
I could easily say ‘Rumble’ via knockout but Bader deserves more consideration at least. Bader has tools and packs some power, not as much as Johnson, but good hands by MMA standards and could certainly prove his claim to top contender status, if he fights smart. Bader has the higher fight IQ but will be knocked out early if he tries to prove a point with stand up. If Bader avoids the power of ‘Rumble’ and drags the fight into the later stages with wrestling and top control then he can sink a submission as Johnson begins to tire a loses the will to resist.
Winner: Bader – Submission (Johnson’s kryptonite, rear-naked-choke), round 4
Roberto
For me this fight depends heavily on if Bader can weather the storm that Johnson is sure to bring in the opening 5-minutes. If Johnson can effectively utilize his devastating striking arsenal, which has seen him stop his last 3 victims inside 6-minutes then it could potentially, be a short night for the Blackzilians trained fighter.
On the other hand his opponent Bader has become accustomed to finding ways to win of late no matter who you put in front of him and as a result he has gone on a 2-year unbeaten run which has seen the 32-year old use his well documented wrestling combined with his ever improving striking to grind out 5 decisionwins on the bounce since he suffered a 1sr round TKO loss at the hands of Glover Telxeria.
If it Bader is to win this fight I believe his edge in the wrestling department as well as his ability to avoid taking to much damage early in the fight will be a key factor in the outcome of this fight, unfortunately I can see that happening so I am going to go with Johnson in this fight.
Winner: Johnson – TKO, Round 2
Heavyweight: Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell
Andreas
With the current volatile landscape of the Heavyweight division, Barnett and Rothwell have a real opportunity to put a stamp on their position in the division. Fabricio Werdum and Cain Velasquez’s duel injury scare caused the UFC to move their Fbe. 6 PPV to Fox Sports, leaving the Heavyweight division in disarray.
This fight presents the age old story of grappler against striker. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under many guises, Barnett’s ability on the ground is definitely something to be feared. As he showed against Roy Nelson in Japan, he can use it to grind out a fight if needs be.
Rothwell is definitely the one to watch though. In his last two wins over Alistair Overeem and Matt Mitrione we have seen two very different sides of Rothwell, who has managed to show his capability both on the mat and on the feet. His striking credentials are backed up by 20 career knockouts, and his gogo choke against Mitrione was emphatic to see.
With Stipe Miocic waiting patiently for his shot at the belt, I feel dependent on the scale of Werdum’s injury the winner of this could face the Croatian for the interim-strap if necessary.
Winner: Rothwell – KO, Round 3
Barnaby
Because he has only fought once since 2013 it is tricky to gauge quite what we are going to get from Josh Barnett. While he looked good in his fight versus Roy Nelson he was fighting a guy past his best. While in Ben Rothwell he is fighting someone who at the age of 34 is in the best form of his career. If there is anything to take from Barnett’s fight in Saitama it’s that he managed to go five rounds without catching one of Nelson’s fists in his mouth, which is quite something. Rothwell’s last two victories look very good for him and even left him campaigning for a shot at the title. He has very heavy hands and as we saw against Matt Mitrione, given the opportunity he will finish things on the ground. Having said that I don’t think there is a chance in hell of Rothwell submitting Barnett, if he is to win this fight it is going to be early and with a punch.
But ultimately I think Barnett will be too smart and too patient to grant his opponent even the slightest opportunity on Saturday.
Winner: Barnett – Submission, Round 4
Jorden
Josh Barnett is a fully rounded Mixed Martial Artist with veteran technique and strong IQ in all areas, in addition to a willingness to brawl with a smile if his opponent wants to take it there. That being said, when it comes to submission wrestling Barnett is the Darth Vader to Erik Paulson’s Sidious and I struggle greatly to doubt his power in that area.
I developed a fondness for Rothwell having personally experienced his tremendous character in Dublin. He brings well over a decade of his own professional MMA experience but really needs to catch Barnett off guard and take full advantage of any openings on the feet where he has the best chance in this fight. Rothwell doesn’t bring the same athleticism as Travis Browne who last defeated Barnett and I can’t see him going quietly with a second successive defeated. I think Barnett will maintain control throughout but Rothwell’s enthusiasm will see him last.
Winner: Barnett – Unanimous Decision
Roberto
Both fighter have the potential to end this fight very quickly with Rothwell’s last 4 wins coming via KO or TKO and 3 of those wins coming in round 1 and Barnett also having the ability to bring an end to the encounter by using his storied ground game to submit pretty much any heavyweight in the world.
On this occasion I believe Barnett’s more well rounded game will see him takedown his opponent and earn a submission win late in the contest.
Winner: Barnett – Submission, Round 3
Bantamweight: Iuri Alcantara vs. Jimmie Rivera
Andreas
Rivera has been a fighter making waves for quite some time now, and is really pushing strong at looking to make waves at 135lbs in 2016. He burst onto the scene against Marcus Brimage in Glasgow last year and thoroughly impressed with his 1:29 demolition of ‘The Bama Beast’. He struggled a little bit last time out against Pedro Munhoz but still managed to come away with the win.
Alcantara is a certified UFC veteran and a true gatekeeper for anyone looking to challenge the top of half of the division. Similar to Rivera he is well adept on the ground, and it could make for some lovely grappling exchanges by both men.
The ground game Rivera perfected at Tiger Schulmann makes him a real test for anyone, and I expect him to notch another win against the ageing Alcantara.
Winner: Rivera – Decision
Barnaby
Jimmie Rivera will take this opportunity to make a name for himself in the bantamweight division. It is certainly the biggest fight of his young career but I expect the native New Yorker to put on a show for the Newark crowd and end this one. Iuri Alcantra cannot be taken lightly though. He is a very experienced fighter, with this being his twelfth fight under the UFC banner and does have the tools to shut down Rivera.
A win for Rivera against a man who has victories over Trinaldo and Lamas could put him in line to face a ranked opponent next time round.
Winner: Rivera – TKO, Round 2
Jorden
Rivera is capable in all areas and will be feeling confident with a win streak dating back to 2008 and a home field advantage that he will surely relish. Rivera brings more aggression and striking success, plus he enjoys banking with appreciable shots to his opponent’s body. This coupled with his decent takedown defence could see him edge the scorecards in the night’s most competitive and energetic fight.
Winner: Rivera, Split Decision
Roberto
I’m going to keep this short and sweet, Rivera faces without a doubt the toughest fight of his young career when he faces Alcantara who is entering his 5th year plying his trade inside the octagon for almost 5-years which has seen face some of the best fighters the division has to offer.
On paper 35-year old Alcantara, who will be competing for the 39th time as a professional would seemly have the edge over his 26-year old at least in the experience department but Rivera is currently riding a 8-year, 16-fight unbeaten run and I believe he will extend that run in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Winner: Rivera, Unanimous Decision
Welterweight: Bryan Barberena vs. Sage Northcutt
Andreas
Northcutt, just because.
Bryan Barberena came off very flat in his unanimous decision loss to Chad Laprise at UFC 186, and could face the cut with a loss to Northcutt. Whether people like him or not, the slow and methodical build of Northcutt is good for the UFC, and similar to what we are seeing with British Heavyweight boxer Anthony Joshua, he is working his way up the ladder in a leisurely manner.
He’s got great hands and he’s fast; and he can do front flips. What’s not to love.
Winner: Northcutt, KO, Round 1
Barnaby
Would the UFC put anyone in front of “golden” Sage Northcutt who even had a chance of beating him?
The hedgehog haired Texan is being carefully crafted by the bosses at Zuffa to go a long way in this game. While Conor McGregor is one type of perfect, Sage Northcutt is quite another. He is the clean cut, Jesus praising goody goody that Dana White cannot wait to show the ignorant MMA doubters to prove our sport is not made up of thugs.
In terms of performance he has impressed me as well. He is immensely strong for the division, with a dangerous karate style which enables him to unleash devastating kicks and a ground game to boot.
You might notice that I’ve not even mentioned Bryan Barberena yet, that’s because no one else will afterwards.
Winner: Northcutt, TKO, Round 1
Jorden
I imagine the UFC marketing machine was drooling at the news of working on Sage Northcutt who strikes me as the product of a fairytale spell that can bring baby faced jocks straight out of a teen movie and in to the real world. To some Northcutt is frustratingly over stated at this early stage of his career and Cody Pfister certainly highlighted a vulnerability in his last outing. Nevertheless he is highly talented with room to develop with every bout and will benefit more from the late opponent change than Barbarena who is stepping into a fairly unique challenge, both mentally and physically, on short notice. Due to his reputation for striking I can picture the young up and comer developing a speedy counter Guillotine when faced with takedowns.
Winner: Northcutt – Submission (Guillotine Choke), round 2
Roberto
Is Northcutt really the future of the sport or is he all hype? If I am honest I haven’t seen anything from Sage that has particularly impressed me but I do think Barbarena is a step up in class for the 19-year old despite losing to Chad Laprise in his last fight.
But this despite the jury still being out on Northcutt in my opinion I am still picking him for the win.
Winner: Nothcutt, TKO, Round 2
