In 2017 maiden edition of Head 2 Head, we look at the main event of the UFC’s return to Phoenix Arizona and the main event that see red hot Featherweight Yair Rodriguez taking on MMA legend BJ Penn.
The bout that takes place at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona and will headlines the promotions UFC Fight Night 103 event that will see Rodriguez (9-1) welcome back Penn (16-10-2) who makes his octagon return after a 2 and a half year absence.
Using FightMetrics, we look at the following areas to try to determine the most likely outcome of this intriguing encounter at UFC Fight Night 103: –
SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy
SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)
TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes
TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy
TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)
Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Rodriguez is without a doubt the more dynamic striker of the two featherweights so it stands to reason that he would have the edge in this department, landing 1.02 (SLpM: 3.72) more strikes per minute then Penn who manages to land on averages SLpM: 2.70 times for every minute spent inside the octagon.
It is this advantage that has helped the young Mexican to stay perfect during his time competing for the Ultimate Fighting Championship, landing a total of 235 siginficant strikes. Most recently out struck Alex Caceres by 120 strikes to 62 in his split decision win at UFC Fight Night 92 last August.
In contrast Penn has been out struck in each of his previous 4-fights since out striking Matt Huges 7 signifiant strikes to 3 on route to 1st round TKO of the former Welterweight champion at UFC 123 in November 2010.
Advantage: Rodriguez
Significant Striking Accuracy
It may come as a surprise to some but in this department it is the former UFC Welterweight and Lightweight champion that has the edge. The Hawaiian lands 50% of the strikes he throws compared to his opponent who’s signifiant strike accuracy stands at 48%.
Despite having an advantage here the issue with Penn isn’t the quality of the strikes thrown it is the quantity of his strikes because it would seem as he has advanced in years the volume of strikes thrown by him has diminished.
Advantage: Penn
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Again it is Rodriguez that has a slight edge in this department absorbing on average 0.75 (SApM: 2.12) less significant strikes per minute then Penn who averages SApM: 2.87.
This should come as little surprise to MMA fans as the JacksonWink trained featherweight has regularly displayed how fleet of foot he is during his 2 plus years completing inside the octagon.
Advantage: Rodriguez
Significant Strike Defence
Both fighters impress in this department but it is the 24-year old nick named “Pantera” who hold the advantage, being 11% (Str. Def: 64%) better off then his 38-year old opponent who manages to defend 55% of all significant strikes thrown at him.
It is this advantage that has enable to Rodriguez to win 7 consecutive contests since his 2012 1st round defeat to Luis Roberto Herrera under the Mexican Fighters Promotions banner.
Advantage: Rodriguez
Takedown Accuracy
The Prodigy is 15% (TD Acc.: 55%) better off then his younger opponent who is only able to secure 40% of the takedowns he attempts.
Despite this advantage Penn very rarely takes the fight to the canvas, preferring to keep the fight standing which could play directly into his opponents hands on Sunday night.
Advantage: Penn
Takedown Average (per 15 minutes)
Surprisingly it is the fighter who hails from Parral, Chihuahua In Mexico who has the edge despite Penn being more accurate with takedowns. “Panter” averages 0.24 (TD Avg.: 1.55) more takedowns then Penn (TD Avg.: 1.31) every 15 minutes.
Advantage: Rodriguez
Takedown Defence
Normal service resumes here as it is the former two weight UFC champion Penn who has a distinct advantage here with the Hawaiian stuffing almost 3 quarters (TD Def.: 74%) of all takedowns attempted on him compared to his opponent who is 15% (TD Def.: 61%) worse off.
Because of this superiority Penn has never been submitted during a mixed martial arts career that has lasted over a decade and a half.
Advantage: Penn
Average Submissions Attempted (per 15 minutes)
On average Rodriguez attempts 0.8 (Sub. Avg.: 1.4) more submissions the Penn (Sub. Avg.: 0.6) every 15 minutes and as a result he has earned submission wins over Carlos Ricardo and Angelo Duarte during his time on the regional circuit.
Despite averaging less submissions attempt you would be foolish to dismiss Penn’s world class submission game with “The Prodigy” being able to tapping out 38% of his opponents who include Matt Huges, Joe Stevenson and Jens Pulver.
Advantage: Rodriguez
Conclusion
Statistically this fight can only have one winner with the Mexican clearly having the overall edge against the ageing Penn. I can’t shake the feeling that this fight will be a passing of the touch ceremony of sorts with a win giving Rodriguez a platform to go on to face a opponent ranked higher then him in the featherweight rankings. With the betting odds supporting the number and our resident tipster Stuart Rogers tipping Rodriguez for the win in the latter round in of the fight his UFC Fight Night 103 Betting Guide so it appears Penn’s time in the Ultimate proving ground could be coming to an end.
Let us know who wins, Rodriguez or Penn? Comment below.
