Welcome back to the MMA Plus Betting Report where this week I search long and hard for value for the upcoming, historic UFC 205.
Can Conor McGregor stay “Pretty in Mink” and add the UFC Lightweight title to his list of achievements or will Eddie Alvarez spoil the party for the Irishman and his loyal fans.
Also be sure to check out the Brazilian who’s caught my eye with my 11/2 “Red Pantie Night” pick further down the card.
Eddie Alvarez (28-4) 13/10 vs. Conor McGregor (20-3) 7/10 – Lightweight Title
For the past few weeks, I have swayed on my decision for this fight and after looking at previous fights and pouring over stats, I have come to the conclusion to follow my gut and back McGregor to do the business.
After his defeat to Nate Diaz, I feel the Irishman matured as a fighter and used the loss constructively to improve. During the early stages of the second fight with Diaz, McGregor wasn’t just landing clean shots, he was dropping Diaz and showed a much better gameplan when Diaz once again frustrated him by popping back up and continuing to march forward.
Although Eddie Alvarez is known to have a granite chin, I think McGregor wobbles him with his power and will be able to hurt him enough to go for the finish.
My only concern is that Alvarez has a solid wrestling background to utilise and if he is able to take McGregor down then he could effectively stifle him the whole fight by dominating the positions on the ground. I just feel that even with employing that tactic, “The Notorious” is dangerous enough on the feet to take advantage of the opportunities that arise throughout the five rounds and Conor McGregor can do what he does best and make history.
Tip: Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 at 13/2
Tyrone Woodley (16-3) 13/8 vs. Stephen Thompson (13-1) 1/2 – Welterweight Title
I’m just going to go ahead and get this out the way: In my opinion, Tyrone Woodley is overrated.
Regardless of what the UFC hype machine tells us, Woodley should never have walked into a Welterweight title fight against Robbie Lawler after sitting out for a year. The shot he landed on Lawler was one that the former champ would have walked through in his previous wars and I really don’t think Stephen Thompson will have any difficulty avoiding the power punches of Woodley while landing unorthodox counters of his own.
Thompson is still very much a puzzle that nobody has yet found a solution to with his only loss so far coming to Matt Brown in a decision, although Brown was in trouble twice and many feel the fight could and should have been stopped in favour of ”Wonderboy”.
Woodley has a collegiate wrestling background and being a very competent grappler, may try to find success on the ground. I think when he’s fresh he does get a takedown or two early on, but having never gone five rounds, I don’t see him staying in control.
Tip: Stephen Thompson to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 17/4
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0) 1/4 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0) 3/1 – Strawweight Title
With very short odds on the champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, people may be interested in the 3/1 underdog Karolina Kowalkiewicz but my advice is not to aim for a “red pantie night” with this fight.
Jedrzejczyk has made a career out of breezing past the contenders put in her path and with their styles so closely matching, I see both fighters having a barnstormer of a five round fight. I see Joanna “Champion” having the edge in both striking and in the clinch as although both Poles are well matched, Jedrzejczyk is still the division’s best.
My only concern is that with Jedrzejczyk changing gyms for the first time in her career during this training camp, it could go wrong for her as it has for others in the past. I’ll keep the faith though and even back the unanimous decision for the best value but I offer no insurance over shaky judging.
Tip: Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win by unanimous decision at 27/20
Chris Weidman (13-1) 4/7 vs. Yoel Romero (11-1) 29/20 – Middleweight
In this unofficial number one contender bout in the Middleweight division, I’m picking Chris Weidman to go a step closer to reclaiming the gold by beating Yoel Romero in his hometown of New York.
Although Romero is a fearsome figure with his explosive power and superhero-like physique, I will not be surprised when he runs out of steam late into the second and the former champion takes over especially if he works his grinding ground game to tire out the Cuban.
Weidman has faced better fighters than Romero and I think he can weather the early storm to take it later on in the fight.
Tip: Chris Weidman to win by KO/TKO or Submission at 33/20
Miesha Tate (18-6) 11/20 vs. Raquel Pennington (8-6) 3/2 – Bantamweight
A lot of people like Miesha Tate in this match-up but I much prefer the price on underdog Raquel Pennington to come out with the win.
Miesha Tate won the Women’s Bantamweight title by beating Holly Holm however she was down by three rounds to one heading into the fifth round. Then she lost the title in her first defence against Amanda Nunes with a terrible performance where she was overwhelmed and outclassed by the Brazilian. Despite her reputation, Tate puts in bad performance after bad performance but has scraped by thus far.
Pennington is a tough fighter who has more to her game than her record suggests, losing narrowly to Holly Holm but holding her own in the striking department. I think she makes this a brawl and is much more equipped to win over wrestler Tate.
Tip: Raquel Pennington to win by decision at 29/10
Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) 10/31 vs. Michael Johnson (18-10) 49/20 – Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov is expected to cement his status as number one contender in the Lightweight division in this fight however I really like the chances and price of Michael Johnson to upset the Russian.
Nurmagomedov relies solely on his grappling and wrestling, offering very little in the striking department whereas Johnson is a very dangerous opponent who is underrated in my opinion especially since moving to Blackzillians.
If Johnson can keep this on the feet long enough to frustrate Khabib then this fight could become extremely interesting and Johnson could take advantage of any sloppy takedown attempts as the fight progresses.
Tip: Michael Johnson to win at 49/20
Frankie Edgar (19-5-1) 5/17 vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12) 27/10 – Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens has one chance in this fight and that all comes down to him scoring a knockout but against Frankie Edgar, that isn’t happening.
New Yorker Edgar has never been knocked out in his career and will possess too much speed and quickness for Stephens to handle. I expect him to keep this on the feet and outclass Stephens in a striking clinic, outpointing him and taking a unanimous decision on his hometown judges’ score cards.
Tip: Frankie Edgar to win by unanimous decision at 29/20
Vicente Luque (10-5-1) 23/20 vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1) 5/7 – Welterweight
Ignore the win/loss record and let’s go with slight underdog Vicente Luque who’s on a three fight win streak after finishing all his opponents and looking more impressive and improved each time.
Belal Muhammed looked good in Titan FC but since coming to the UFC, he has went 1-1 while looking extremely poor. He tends to get wobbly when hit by a good shot and was dropped several times in his previous fight.
With Luque’s striking and vicious left hook, I really like the look of the Brazilian to win by knockout.
“Red Pantie Night” Tip of the week: Vicente Luque to win by KO/TKO at 11/2
Jim Miller (27-8 1NC) 7/5 vs. Thiago Alves (26-10) 10/17 – Lightweight
Again I’m going to play devil’s advocate and go with the underdog Jim Miller in this one especially after the whole shenanigans at the weigh-in’s with Thiago Alves missing weight, and with the fight now being fought at a Catchweight of 163lbs.
Thiago Alves has been off for a long time and his clearly days are long gone. He’s extremely hittable and takes a beating even in victory which against Miller, who has accurate and powerful striking, could be dangerous.
A lot of uncertainty surrounds how this fight may play out but either way, get on Miller to spoil the Brazilian’s return.
Tip: Jim Miller to win by decision at 7/2
Rafael Natal (21-7-1) 8/13 vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10) 27/20 – Middleweight
I’m going to use my pass on this one as this is the least relevant or anticipated fight on this card.
Natal has developed a style that never puts his opponent to sleep but is very effective on fight fans who will be snoring by the second round.
Tim Boetsch is in the twilight of his career and although capable of recapturing old magic, it’s unlikely to come here
Tip: Pass
Liz Carmouche (9-5) 3/2 vs. Katlyn Chookagian (8-0) 11/20 – Bantamweight
Katlyn Chookagian is the hometown fighter, a future contender in the Women’s Bantamweight division and undefeated so far in her professional MMA career. Against Liz Carmouche, who’s never been the same since her defeat to Ronda Rousey, I like “Blonde Fighter” to take this one.
Carmouche is incredibly tough and will take this fight the distance but I expect her to be outclassed in every round by Chookagian.
Tip: Katlyn Chookagian to win by unanimous decision at 23/10
All odds provided by Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing
