Welcome to a brand new MMA Plus Betting Guide with your resident degenerate gambler Stuart Rodger. This week we take a look at UFC 210, live from the KeyBank Centre in Buffalo, New York and the big Light-Heavyweight title main event between reigning champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Anthony “Rumble” Johnson.
After the first quarter of the 2017, we found ourselves off to a decent start at +11pts profit over all bets with clear profit for every event of 2017 so far up until taking small hits in the past few weeks. We were back to winning ways however backing Darren Elkins at UFC 209 before small losses in London brought us back down to earth.
UFC 210 Main Event
Daniel Cormier (18-1) Evs vs. Anthony Johnson (22-5) 4/5 – Light-Heavyweight title
UFC 210’s headline fight in Buffalo, New York this week is a repeat of the UFC 187 main event which saw Daniel Cormier best Anthony Johnson with his superior wrestling and grappling game before getting the win with a third round submission. After continuous improvement and destroying all contenders that have stood in his way since that bout in 2015, “Rumble” has finally earned a chance at redemption on Saturday night.
Since their first meeting, Cormier has only fought twice in nearly two years as injuries and long running drama with Jon Jones has either kept him from the Octagon or from defending his title since defeating Alexander Gustafsson in October 2015. This could be a major factor in the bookmakers pricing the champion as the underdog coming into this fight, and it’s something that needs to be considered, along with his advancing years and weigh-in troubles.
“Rumble” meanwhile, has used the time since his defeat to Cormier to take out the biggest names of the light-heavyweight division in Jimi Manuwa and Glover Teixeira. Having improved his power and speed, Johnson has now knocked out his past three opponents and looks to be a much bigger challenge for “DC” this time round.
Cormier’s chin saved him in their first fight as Johnson rocked him early in the first round but despite his years of durability, all good things must come to an end. Although I’m a big fan of Cormier’s high fight IQ and decision-making in the Octagon, I feel his time is up and will look to back “Rumble” Johnson. With the odds being so close, it makes dipping into the prop markets essential and after some deliberation, I like the price on “Rumble” to repeat his recent feats, get the early KO and walk away the new champion.
Tip: Anthony Johnson to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at 5/2 (single)
UFC 210 Main Card
Chris Weidman (13-2) 20/21 vs. Gegard Mousasi (41-6-2) 20/23 – Middleweight
Cynthia Calvillo (4-0) 4/11 vs. Pearl Gonzalez (6-1) 11/5 – Women’s Strawweight
Patrick Cote (23-10) 5/7 vs. Thiago Alves (21-11) 23/20 – Welterweight
Will Brooks (18-2) 10/23 vs. Charles Oliveira (21-7) 37/20 – Lightweight
In the co-main event of UFC 210, former middleweight champion Chris Weidman attempts to bounce back from two straight defeats against the surging Gegard Mousasi. The Dutch fighter has been on a tear as of late and has won four straight fights including attention catching stoppages of UFC legend Vitor Belfort and Uriah Hall.
Weidman will no doubt aim to use his superior wrestling and grappling in this fight however the BJJ of Mousasi should factor in if this fight goes to the ground. With the drive of Mousasi just now coupled with his anger at the UFC over an insulting contract offer, I like him to keep this on the feet and pick apart Weidman over the course of the bout.
Two underdogs at the bottom of the main card really catch my eye as I see clear paths to victory for both Thiago Alves and Charles Oliveira in their respective bouts.
Although Patrick Cote has a chin carved of granite, as does Alves and I expect a war between these two with the Brazilian getting the better of Cote in a three round fire fight which should suit his style to a tee.
With Oliveira facing Will Brooks, I just can’t shake the feeling that Brooks was extremely overrated coming out of Bellator. He is extremely strong in the grappling and wrestling areas, however with his Brazilian opponent holding a black belt in BJJ, an over reliance on the ground game could prove to be his downfall in this match-up.
Tip: Mousasi, Alves and Oliveira to win at 10/1 (treble)
UFC 210 Prelims
Myles Jury (15-2) 4/17 vs. Mike De La Torre (14-6) 33/10 – Featherweight
Sean Strickland (18-1) 13/5 vs. Kamaru Usman (9-1) 3/10 – Welterweight
Shane Burgos (8-0) 2/5 vs. Charles Rosa (11-2) 2/1 – Featherweight
Jan Blachowicz (19-6) 10/11 vs. Patrick Cummins (8-4) 10/11 – Light-Heavyweight
Gregor Gillespie (8-0) 5/13 vs. Andrew Holbrook (12-1) 21/10 – Lightweight
Des Green (19-5) 33/20 vs. Josh Emmett (11-0) 20/41 – Lightweight
Irene Aldana (7-3) 5/4 vs. Katlyn Chookagian (8-1) 2/3 – Women’s Bantamweight
Magomed Bibulatov (13-0) 4/21 vs. Jenel Lausa (7-2) 19/5 – Flyweight
With a stacked preliminary card in Buffalo, we are spoiled for choice with picks this week and will look for the best value underdogs available in this one.
Although I’m a big fan of some of the names making an appearance on the UFC 210 prelims such as Josh Emmett and Magomed Bibulatov, there’s no fun in backing favourites. Instead the three names that all jump out to me this week as Sean Strickland, Charles Rosa and Jan Blachowicz.
Strickland holds big wins over some standout talents such as Luke Barnatt and Tom Breese and being priced at 13/5 whilst possessing a 18-1 record is ludicrous to me. Couple that with him facing the underwhelming Kamaru Usman, whose reputation as a powerhouse see’s him as favourite in a lot of fights despite “The Nigerian Nightmare” being taken the distance in his previous three bouts.
Despite a long layoff, Rosa has put his injury woes and contract disputes behind him in order to return to action in the UFC against Shane Burgos. With many highly rating Burgos striking prowess and knockout power, I’ve instead looked at how Rosa can excel in the scrambles and can neutralise talented strikers with a smothering pressure game. This is what enabled him to push top featherweight Yair Rodriguez to the distance with Rosa being unfortunate to lose via a split decision in their UFC 188 contest.
With both fighters having lost three of their last four fights, I can see why the bookmakers are making the light-heavyweight bout between Blachowicz and Patrick Cummins a straight-up pick’em fight. However I feel the Pol is a far better fighter than his American counterpart and will hold an advantage regardless of where this fight ends up.
Tip: Strickland, Rosa and Blachowicz to win at 19/1 (treble)
All odds and markets correct at time of writing and provided by Ladbrokes.com
