Welcome everyone to another installment of the MMA Plus Betting Guide where this week we look towards Melbourne, Australia for UFC Fight Night 101.
After another successful week with the Sao Paulo event where this guide was +10.2pts in profit (+33.9pts since UFC 205), we will again try and look for the best value bets to fill your pockets on Saturday night.
Robert Whittaker (16-4) 5/4 vs. Derek Brunson (16-3) 2/3 – Middleweight
With both fighters coming off five straight victories, a win for either could see them enter the congested contenders’ pool at the top of the Middleweight division. This is a really close fight with both guys having the knockout power to finish this one early.
Derek Brunson has a great adaptability to change styles to suit opponents and although he has scored four first round knockouts in his last four fights, his bouts against Lorenz Larkin and Chris Leben show he can rely more on his NCAA Division II wrestling background to get the win over dangerous strikers.
New Zealander Whittaker is a black belt in Karate and has the mobility to match his power, using angles to evade counters and returning with good solid strikes of his own. He has good takedown defence which could be important against a strong wrestler like Brunson.
After the recent fights of both, I don’t see this one going long but I think Brunson might try to use his superior grappling and physicality to wear down Whittaker before going for a finish late on. Backing the finish also covers the bases if he finds a home for the big left hand again.
Tip: Derek Brunson to win by KO/TKO at 2/1
Andrew Holbrook (11-1) 12/5 vs. Jake Matthews (11-2) 1/3 – Lightweight
Hometown fighter Jake Matthews will have the whole crowd behind him as he looks to get back to winning ways against Andrew Holbrook after both fighters suffered KO losses at The Ultimate Fighter Finale 23 in July.
The young Australian prospect is a patient striker who will look to pick his shots, control the pace and pressure his opponent. Although still developing, the 22-year-old is fantastic on the mat and always goes for his favoured Rear Naked Choke so look for him to try and take the back. My only worry is he can be sloppy and make mistakes that gives his opponents openings.
Holbrook has a ground game to match but suffers from the common problem of “submission over position”. The 30-year-old Lightweight can look frustrating as he gives up ground to chase submissions too quickly and ends up on bottom. He’s very rarely been out of the first round in his career so questions remain over his cardio.
This is the Australian’s fight to lose as far as I’m concerned. He’s capable of finding the finish standing or on the ground and unless Holbrook can capitalise on any mistakes, I see Matthews eventually finding his way to a finish.
Tip: Jake Matthews to win by Submission at 31/10
Omari Akhmedov (15-4) 5/9 vs. Kyle Noke (22-9-1) 3/2 – Welterweight
With both fighters coming off back-to-back losses, this could be a fight to see who keeps their job with the promotion.
The 36-year-old Noke may be in the twilight of his career however he is still a dangerous opponent who has finished five of his last six wins. A really nice varied striking technique, the Australian works the legs and the body more than other fighters and reaps the rewards. He is sure to put out more volume and has a high fight IQ from his vast experience in the sport.
Akmedov is a Combat Sambo master who, although great with his wrestling and takedowns, seems to fade as the fight goes on with even successful attempts quickly emptying his gas tank. He has really heavy strikes in the stand-up however they come slowly and it leaves “Wolverine” exposed as shown in his two previous KO defeats.
Noke has the better chin and cardio in this fight and the key for him is not allowing Akmedov to take him down and keep him there. I reckon the Russians cardio blows out so jump on the veteran underdog to score a late KO.
Tip: Kyle Noke to win by KO/TKO at 9/2
Yusuke Kasuya (9-2-2) 27/20 vs. Alex Volkanovski (13-1) 5/8 – Lightweight
Alex Volkanovski will look to launch his UFC career with a good performance in his promotional debut this weekend in Melbourne.
The Australian arrives in the UFC on a wave of hype from the regional circuit after seven first round finishes and eight KO’s. He is a multi-faceted fighter who can wrestle, grapple and strike and looks dangerous wherever the fight may go. He’s looked extremely fluid when passing guard on the ground but his biggest weapon is a massive overhand right which can end the fight at any time.
Kasuya is fighting for the first time in 14 months after a loss to Nick Hein in Germany last September. Coming from a Karate background, the Japanese fighter has good body kicks and can mix up striking techniques well and compliment it with an opportunistic grappling game which has seen him secure eight of his wins by submission.
Kasuya is very hittable and was picked apart again and again last time out by Hein. He won’t get away with it against “The Great” Volkanovski who will be able to use his power and timing to get an early KO.
Tip: Alex Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO at 2/1
Khalil Rountree (4-1) 2/3 vs. Tyson Pedro (4-0) 5/4 – Light-Heavyweight
RED PANTIE NIGHT BET OF THE WEEK
Khalil Rountree was a finalist in Season 23 of The Ultimate Fighter but fell short against Andrew Sanchez in the final back in July. “The Warhorse” throws everything with power including some nasty head kicks and every strike is thrown looking for a finish. His takedown defence though is a big issue after being taken down six times by Sanchez and tries to unsuccessfully punch his way out of an attempt.
Tyson Pedro makes his debut for the UFC after four straight first round finishes, the last three coming via submission, and has been training in boxing and BJJ from a young age. His takedowns look fantastic with nice level changes ending with big slam takedowns on his opponents. He has a very smooth ground game with slick submissions.
If Rountree is to have any chance, he needs to keep this on the feet, however with the young Australian’s ground game and explosive takedowns that does not look likely. Although one punch can decide any fight, I like Pedro to make a statement in similar fashion to his previous victories and find the Submission.
RPM Tip of the Week: Tyson Pedro to win by Submission at 3/1
Seo Hee Ham (17-7) 4/5 vs. Danielle Taylor (7-2) 21/20 – Bantamweight
With a nickname like “Hamderlei Silva”, Seo Hee Ham is blessed with the same relentless pressure style as her Brazilian namesake. With a background in kickboxing, the South Korean throws a lot of volume but struggles to really hurt her opponents. Her wrestling is still a work in progress and although she can be overeager, she has the chin to deal with being caught by a big shot.
Danielle Taylor fell to a split decision defeat against Maryna Moroz in her debut and had the Ukrainian hurt with a big overhand right but failed to capitalise on it. Happy to wait on the outside to set up the big right when there’s an opening, she will look to shoot in for takedowns also which could be a good plan for her here to exploit her opponents weakness.
Although “Dynamite” can finish the fight with one shot, Ham will be in her face the whole fight and through sheer volume and tenacity alone, should be able to easily take a decision.
Tip: Seo Hee Ham to win by decision at 6/5
Chris Camozzi (24-11) 2/5 vs. Dan Kelly (11-1) 2/1 – Middleweight
Chris Comozzi will have much the much better striking in this bout and will look to use his clinch game to make this fight ugly and give Dan Kelly a tough night. Don’t count the Australian out though as his only UFC loss came at the hands of Sam Alvey by KO and he has thrived as an underdog in the past.
Unlucky last time out against Thales Leites, I just can’t see past Comozzi grinding out a decision over his tough older opponent.
Tip: Chris Comozzi to win by Unanimous Decision at 29/10
Ben Nguyen (15-6) 23/20 vs. Geane Herrera (9-2) 5/7 – Flyweight
Geane Herrera is a tough fighter who, despite two losses from his last three fights, looked dangerous from his back and will fight from the bottom and attempt submissions that gives his opponent something to think about.
Ben Nguyen had no answer to the wrestling of Louis Smolka in his last fight and needs to be wary of any takedown attempts from “The Revolutionary” in this fight. The 28-year-old fighter can come out very aggressive and will look to finish this fight early over Herrera.
Get on underdog “Ben 10” to tag Herrera early and swarm him for the first round win in this very interesting match-up.
Tip: Ben Nguyen to win in Round 1 at 5/1
Richard Walsh (9-4) 23/20 vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-1) 5/7 – Welterweight
Richard Walsh has looked far from impressive in his UFC career so far and the Australian Welterweight has lost three out of his four fights for the promotion so far. Jonathan Meunier lost his UFC debut to Colby Covington after being taken down every round by the talented wrestler.
Walsh should look to exploit the same areas against the Tristar product who will go out and look to finish the fight early. Both have power which could make for an interesting stand up battle and I like the Canadian to put another KO on his record here.
Tip: Jonathan Meunier to win by KO/TKO at 13/5
Marlon Vera (9-3-1) 6/5 vs. Ning Guangyou (5-3-1) 7/10 – Bantamweight
Ning Guangyou looked very hesitant in his last fight against Marco Beltran, failing to find his range and looking poor throughout the defeat. “Smasher” has a great ground game so Marlon Vera would do well to keep this fight standing.
Ecuadorian fighter Vera can’t pull guard like he did against Davey Grant or he will play into his opponents’ hands, however with Guangyou looking for his power shots and not throwing combinations, get on “Chito” to win a decision for another solid underdog pick.
Tip: Marlon Vera to win at 6/5
Dan Hooker (13-6) 2/3 vs. Jason Knight (15-2) 5/4 – Featherweight
Jason Knight is extremely confident and there was plenty of showboating and taunting on his way to an impressive victory over Jim Alers in his last fight. “The Kid” took plenty of shots in the process and that’s not something he wants to do against Dan Hooker.
The New Zealander has knockout power, punishing leg kicks and his submissions can come out of nowhere. Hooker can be patient and take advantage of Knight’s aggression to wait for his chances of a big counter of to just pick him off from distance.
I like “The Hangman” to get the job done inside the distance in this one.
Tip: Dan Hooker to win by KO/TKO, Submission or Technical Decision at 12/5
Damien Brown (16-9) 6/5 vs. Jon Tuck (9-3) 7/10
Jon Tuck can be an explosive fighter when he wants to be but looked completely out of sorts in his last fight against Josh Emmett before finding his rhythm in the third round.
Damien Brown will look to get in the face of Tuck and land some big power punches early and look for a knockout but has to be weary of his opponents’ takedowns. I think Tuck will come out and try to match the Australian’s aggression which could go bad for him.
Tip: Damien Brown to win by KO/TKO at 6/1
Yao Zhikui (2-3) 23/20 vs. Jenel Lausa (6-2) 5/7
Jenel Lausa makes his UFC debut in this event opener and with his professional boxing background, will be looking to showcase his power against Yao Zhikui.
Zhikui will look for takedowns when he gets the opportunities but I like the Filipino to methodically pick off his opponent and get the finish in the second round.
Tip: Jenel Lausa to win at 5/7
