In this edition of Head 2 Head, the ladies take center stage as we take a look at the main event of UFC on Fox 23 which will see Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko taking on “The Venezuelan Vixen” Julianna Pena.
The contest goes down at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado and will see No.1 ranked women’s bantamweight Shevchenko (13-2) taking the No.2 ranked Pena (8-2) with both women looking to earn a shot at reigning 135lbs titleholder Amanda Nunes belt.
Using FightMetrics, we look at the following areas to try to determine the most likely outcome of this intriguing encounter at UFC on Fox 23: –
SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy
SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)
TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes
TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy
TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)
Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Shevchenko earned multiple world titles competing in Muay Thai so you would be forgiven for thinking that the dynamic striker would have the edge in this department, but you would be wrong. It is her opponent Pena who lands on average 1.31 (SLpM: 2.98) more strikes per minute with the Russian who on average lands 2.67 strikes for every minute spent inside the octagon.
It is this advantage that has helped the “The Venezuelan Vixen” make an unbeaten start to her UFC career, defeating Jessica Rakoczy, Milana Dudieva, Jessica Eye and most recently Cat Zingano at UFC 200. To date, Pena has landed a total of 116 significant strikes during her time with the promotion.
In contrast “Bullet” has been outstruck all bar one of her 3 UFC opponents and on the one occasion she was outstruck she suffered her lone loss since signing for the WME-IMG owned promotion against current champion Amanda Nunes at UFC 196 last March.
Advantage: Pena
Significant Striking Accuracy
The different between the pair of 135 pounders is negligible with only 1 percent separating the pair. On the occasion it is Shevchenko who’s significant striking accuracy stands at 49% while Pena’s stands at 48%.
It is that striking accuracy that has allowed the Sikjitsu Gym trained Pena to finish 2 out of her 4 opponents inside the octagon. Surprisingly Shevchenko has yet to stop any of her previous opponents despite enjoying a slight advantage.
Advantage: Shevchenko
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Again it despite her credentials in the world of striking Shevchenko comes out second best in this category. On average the 28-year old absorbs 1.3 (SApM: 2.18) more strikes per minutes the Pena who averages 1.15 per minute.
This surprising stat could suggest that Pena tends to use her movement to avoid being tagged by her opponents while using her striking to close the distances and change levels in order to take the fight to the ground where her true strength lies. In contrast, it seems Bullet is more than willing to take one to give a few back in return.
Advantage: Pena
Significant Strike Defence
In this department, Shevchenko puts up some pretty impressive numbers and as a result, holds the advantage here, being 16% (Str. Def: 64%) better off than “The Venezuelan Vixen” who manages to defend 48% of all significant strikes thrown at her.
It is this advantage that has enabled the 28-year old Russian to amass a record of 13-2 over 14-year career only tasting defeat against Liz Carmouche and bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes.
Advantage: Shevchenko
Takedown Accuracy
Pena is 19% (TD Acc.: 66%) better off than her opponent who is only able to secure 47% of the takedowns she attempts.
It is this advantage that has allowed the Washington native to score more takedowns than her opponents in all bar one of her UFC contests to date.
Advantage: Pena
Takedown Average (per 15 minutes)
It will come as no surprise that the fighter who trains out of team Sikjitsu who has the edge with Pena averaging 0.9 more (TD Avg.: 3.08) takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Shevchenko who averages 2.18 takedowns during the same period.
Advantage: Pena
Takedown Defence
The former Muay Thai world champions ability keep the fight standing has been a key factor in her success to date. Shevchenko ability to dictate if the fight stays standing or goes to the ground has resulted in her being able to defend 70% of all takedowns attempted against her compared to Pena (TD Def.: 28%) who languishes a massive 44% behind her UFC on Fox 23 opponent.
Because of this superiority, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko has the confidence to let her hands, feet, and elbows go without fear of being taken down which could be a massive problem for her opponent.
Advantage: Shevchenko
Average Submissions Attempted (per 15 minutes)
Being one of the premiere strikers in not just women’s MMA but combat sports in general, it stands to reason that Shevchenko relies more on her ability to defeat her opponents standing then on the ground.
As a result to date, she has attempted zero submission during her UFC career meaning that Pena on average attempts 1.5 more submissions every 15-minutes.
Advantage: Pena
Conclusion
Overall if you believe the stats Pena who currently sits at No. 2 in the UFC women’s bantamweight ranking should put on a dominant display against her opponent who is currently the top-ranked 135 pounder. But with the betting odds provided by our resident bookie, Stuart Rogers tipping Shevchenko for the win in his UFC on Fox 23 Betting Guide fans placing a bet have a decision to make. Do they go with the stats or the bookie?
Let us know who wins, Shevchenko or Pena? Comment below.
