By Michael Owens
Two title fights, a big-time heavyweight tilt and a possible flyweight title eliminator make up the most tantalising UFC main card so far in 2014. We’re in for a serious night of fighting.
UFC bantamweight championship – Renan Barão vs. Urijah Faber
It’s about 18 months since Renan Barão beat Urijah Faber up in Calgary. Despite whatever improvements ‘The California Kid’ has made since then it would be quite something to see a different outcome on Saturday.
Faber looked great defeating Ivan Menjivar, Scott Jorgensen and Michael McDonald in 2013 and at worst very good when he beat Iuri Alcantara. His dynamite submission skills were lit and ready to blow up at any moment and he was pulsing with fight-finishing aggression. At the same time, Barão spinning back kicked Eddie Wineland and earned himself a submission over McDonald last year that proved he was also continuing to get better..
There were two big reasons for Barão’s win back in 2012. The first was Urijah’s rib injury. The 35-year-old says he doesn’t like to use that as an excuse but he sure brings it up a lot. It may have constricted his performance but it’s worth remembering that it was caused by his opponent kneeing him really hard. The second thing was Barão’s leg kicks combined with his opponent’s inability (or unwillingness) to defend them. Throw in a bunch of easily defended takedowns by the Brazilian and you ended up with a comprehensive victory. Faber’s brilliant run last year was great, but it still didn’t give anyone any reason to believe a similarly improved Renan Barão can’t do just the same thing as a year and a half ago.
The Pick: Faber will still be game and it would be shocking to see him finished, but the champion from Nova União should cruise to another unanimous decision win.
UFC featherweight championship – Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas
The UFC has really had to work hard to promote this as a fight. Ricardo Lamas deserves all the credit in the world for his run to the title, but he’s stepping into a different league here.
Aldo can defend the takedown, box in combinations, scramble on the mat and throw a variety of high and low kicks. He can finish the fight at any momen. The only thing going against him is his perceived lack of cardio, but that is overplayed. While he did slow down against Mark Hominick he looked pretty fresh dismantling Frankie Edgar and Kenny Florian over five rounds. Lamas doesn’t bring any skills that are good enough to overcome any of these things.
Short and sweet, but there’s a reason Aldo has won 16 fights in a row – eight of the title matches.
The Pick: Aldo doesn’t hang around and gets the T/KO within three rounds.
Heavyweight – Frank Mir vs. Alistair Overeem
This could be a fight that could spell the end of a UFC career for one of these very high-profile heavyweights.
Alistair Overeem is a devastating striker who has been let down by his cardio, his lazy guard and chin in two UFC losses to Travis Browne and Antonio Silva. Fortunately for him, Frank Mir won’t be throwing front kicks straight up the middle into his face or fists the size of cinder blocks his way. ‘The Reem’s’ route to victory is by throwing heavy offence at Mir early and often. He showed how well he can do that against Browne, but as it turned out, ‘Hapa’ is about as durable as they come. Mir, on the other hand, wilts under the strain of hard shots to the face and he will have rarely seen strikes of this magnitude coming his way.
Mir’s path to victory is on the mat or through taking the fight into the third round. This will be difficult as Overeem’s takedown defence is excellent and doesn’t get the credit it deserves. Mir will also find it hard to take the fight much further than the first round if he starts getting hit. The smart bet would be for a former K-1 champion to be able to do that to a fading submission specialist.
The pick: Overeem will get back on track with a crushing KO inside the first five minutes.
Flyweight – Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker
This is a tough one to call. Lineker has had all the hype after his knockdown-heavy wins, as well as a lot of attention for his weight-cutting issues. Bagautinov has flown under the radar of mainstream attention, but he has picked up two very nice wins in the UFC so far and showed off both his striking and grappling skill in the process.
If Bagautinov can survive the initial Lineker onslaught the he looks primed to take this one and move in line for one of the more unlikely UFC title shits in history. As the fight wears on it’s not hard to imagine him circling out of danger, counter punching and instigating grappling exchanges if his Brazilian opponent starts to fade.
The pick: Ali Bagautinov by decision.
Lightweight – Abel Trujillo vs. Jamie Varner
This could be considered to be something of an anomaly on the main card. All of the other fights that are set to follow this lightweight scrap feature ranked, known fighters in high stakes fights. This is a fight between two guys in the middle of the pack. This is lightweight though, so it is by no means a bad way to kick things off.
Varner’s best hope is to use his wrestling to put Trujillo on his back, but that is easier said than done as ‘Killa’ has shown some sturdy defence against takedowns so far in his UFC career. He’s also shown off some crazy power that could end a fight in an instant.
However, Varner has the tools – including good boxing that can set up his shots – to take the fight where he will have the advantage. He seems to have shaken off any doubts about his ability to compete at the highest level after a rough, rough run in 2010. He’s a top pro who is able to get the job done against most lightweights that aren’t on the fringes of the UFC top 15.
The pick: Varner mixes up strikes to compete on the feet before dominating position on the mat to take a unanimous decision.
On the prelims…
Watch out for a striking masterclass from John Makdessi, some high-tempo flyweight fun from Chris Cariaso and Tom Watson trying to brawl his way back into the win column and into the hearts and minds of slugging-happy MMA fans. JUST BLEED!
Lightweight – John Makdessi vs. Alan Patrick
Flyweight – Chris Cariaso vs. Danny Martinez
Middleweight – Nick Catone vs. Tom Watson
Lightweight – Al Iaquinta vs. Kevin Lee
Middleweight – Andy Enz vs. Clint Hester
Lightweight – Rashid Magomedov vs. Tony Martin
Welterweight – Neil Magny vs. Gasan Umalatov
