By Michael Owens
SURPRISE! Midweek MMA is back. Be honest. How many of you reading this article actually had any idea the UFC was running a fight night card on a Wednesday night this week? Even if you did, did you have any idea who was fighting apart from possibly the headliners? Whether you did or you didn’t, never fear. MMA Plus is here to break down the main card so you know just what to expect.
Middleweight – Luke Rockhold vs. Constantinos Philippou
Tomorrow night’s main event is unusually lopsided for a fight night event. I can’t think of anyone who is picking Costa Philippou to win.
The Cypriot managed to build up an impressive five-fight win streak in 2011 and 2012 that broke him into the middleweight top 10, but that was brought to a crashing halt by Francis Carmont in Phiippou’s only fight in 2013. Despite Carmont’s own 11-fight win streak, he has not looked impressive in many of his Octagon performances and his win was a damning indication of his opponent’s limitations. The Cyprus Slugger was controlled for almost the entire three rounds.
Former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold deserves to be a four-to-one favourite. Hiis own nine-fight win streak was brought to a crashing halt by Vitor Belfort in May, but seeing as ‘The Phenom’ spent the entirety of 2013 decapitating any opponent who had the misfortune to step into the Octagon with him, it would not be fair to hold that against the American Kickboxing Academy product.
This should be the ideal fight for the 29-year-old to get back on the horse against a highly regarded but unspectacular opponent. Rockhold is a better striker, grappler and all-round fighter than Costa Philippou and should be able to win any way he wants. He has shown the ability to go into deep water with truly elite 185 pound fighters and blow inferior opposition away. I think tomorrow’s fight will play out somewhere in between those outcomes as Rockhold wins the striking exchanges with jabs and kicks, staying out of range of his opponent’s boxing. As the fight goes on, I expect Rockhold to take the fight to the mat and finish with strikes or a submission
Middleweight – Lorenz Larkin vs. Brad Tavares
How on earth did we get here? Brad Tavares couldn’t make it to the TUF 11 finale, but he has built up a 6-1 in the UFC. Now he’s in the co-main event of a UFC Fight Night. He also had the absurd stat going for him, suggesting he was the most successful takedown defender in the history of the UFC.
A lot of the Hawaiian’s success has come courtesy of some pretty favourable matchmaking, but he has never looked all too impressive. He came out of the TUF house with a reputation as a bad-ass young brawler, but most of his victories have come by way of plodding decision. Tavares may be all out of luck in this fight.
Lorenz Larkin is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC today. He should have an undefeated record, but thanks the sports current leading judge hypnotist – Francis Carmont – one rip-off decision defeat blemishes his record. Apparently hitting your opponent more times than he hits you counts for nothing these days. Larkin should have won two rounds in that fight but he did win all three in each of his fights with Robbie Lawler and the tough as the come Chris Camozzi. His dominance in the clinch – utilising the liberal use of elbows – combined with a strong kicking game surprised many people in those contests, but shouldn’t this time. His strenght and technical superiority should have him dominating Tavares all over, but probably not enough to get a stoppage.
Bantamweight – T.J. Dillashaw vs. Mike Easton
T.J. Dillashaw comes from the Team Alpha Male/Duane Ludwig school of coming out all guns blazing and crushing your opponent. Mike Easton is the exact opposite. Despite all the raw talent in the world, great strength and staggering athleticism, the man simply does not pull the trigger and allows himself to be outworked by fighters he should run a lot closer.
Having said that, his only two defeats have been to Raphael Assunção and Brad Pickett (and that was a great fight) so maybe it’s a little early to be too dismissive of ‘The Hulk’. On the other hand, Dillashaw looked far more impressive in his close loss to Assunção and has shown improvements fight after fight.
Take Dillashaw by decision based on a relentless salvo of takedowns and constant striking offence from standing position as well as on the mat.
Middleweight – Derek Brunson vs. Yoel Romero
This is an odd one for the main card, as neither men are particularly well known. However after losing efforts in Strikeforce both fighters have made the transition to the UFC and added two wins to their records. They now find themselves facing each other after impressive stoppage wins just two months ago on the third Fight For the Troops card.
Both men have great wrestling, but Romero’s stands out due to his trip to the 2000 Olympics in Sydney. Romero also has something in common with a lot of the former Cuban former Olympians that have transitioned to MMA, and that’s a propensity fight-ending violence. While Brunson gets the job done with quiet efficiency, Romero likes to land precision kill-shots that simply melt other fighters and leave them comatose on the mat. Expect some of that fast-twitch explosiveness to rear its head in the first round and give Brunson a bad night.
Flyweight – John Moraga vs. Dustin Ortiz
Moraga has been dismissed by some after he was taken to school by Demetrious Johnson, but it’s worth remembering his fantastic run to the title which included stoppage wins over top fighters. He showed of his uncanny power by knocking Ulysses Gomez out in the first round and his grappling acumen by tapping Chris Cariaso. Johnson was just a step too far as one of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet.
Ortiz is a top wrestler though, and could easily catch Moraga cold if he’s underestimating him. I’ll keep faith with Moraga to get inside and box him up though, possibly grabbing a stoppage.
Featherweight – Cole Miller vs. Sam Sicilia
Flip a coin. Miller should have this on lock thanks to his jiu-jitsu, which is a match for any fighter at 145 pounds. Not just that, Sicilia has shown a flagrant disregard for conditioning in the past, so he’s there for the taking. On the other hand, this is Cole Miller and he’s never been one to shy away from a firefight, even when it is absolutely in his best interests to avoid one. Sicilia does pack some silly power in his fists and could find himself as an upset winner if his opponent plays into his hands. Literally.
Prelims
Lightweight – Justin Edwards vs. Ramsey Nijem
Lightweight – Elias Silverio vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Middleweight – Brian Houston vs. Trevor Smith
Flyweight – Alptekin Ozkilic vs. Louis Smolka
Lightweight – Vinc Pichel vs. Garett Whiteley
Lightweight – Charlie Brenneman vs. Beneil Dariush
