By Michael Owens
The Ultimate fighting Championship returns to Arena Jaraguá in Jaraguá do Sul, Brazil, tomorrow for the second time. A pair of middleweight fights with major title implications anchor the main card and it is a pair of Brazilian natives who are favoured to win the day and send the capacity crowd home happy.
Middleweight – Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Machida welcomes Mousasi back the the middleweight division, where he has not fought since winning the DREAM grand prix in 2008. 185 pounds seems to be a good fit for both men, as they no longer have a size disadvantage against the majority of their opponents.
‘The Dragon’ has defeated a laundry list of MMA legends including B.J. Penn, Tito Ortiz and Mauricio Rua. Better yet, he has definitively stopped the likes of Rashad Evans, Rich Franklin and Randy Couture. His timing and pinpoint accuracy give him the openings that allow him to land lethally decisive punches and kicks against most of the comparatively striking-illiterate members of the UFC roster.
Mousasi is a bit different. He is an accomplished kickboxer, going so far as to fight against and beat good K-1 fighters. Unfortunately, this level of skill suggests that this fight could be a bit of a snoozer. Neither man is renowned as fantastically aggressive, especially not against opponents that will pose the kind of threats the other will.
The pick – Bet on a decision victory for Machida, as his superior reactions and speed should be enough to see him avoid punishment while he out.
Middleweight – Ronaldo Souza vs. Francis Carmont
Francis Carmont has probably put together the most underwhelming six-fight winning streak in UFC history over the last two years with wins over Chris Camozzi, Magnus Cedenblad, Karlos Vemola, Tom Lawlor, Lorenz Larkin and Costas Philippou. It would be tough to find anyone who thought he deserved the judges’ nod over Larkin and Lawlor and while his biggest win to date – against Philippou – was dominant, it hardly set the pulses racing.
Fortunately, Carmont haters can rejoice, because he is likely about to get brought crashing down to earth by one of the middleweight division’s best fighters. Jacaré is superior to Carmont in almost every department. The Frenchman has an advantage in wrestling but his Brazilian foe can easily negate that with his otherworldly guard game. Even then, it would be a brave man to suggest Jacaré will not have the advantage in the clinch. Add to that some excellent boxing that has evolved by leaps and bounds in the last half-decade and you have a recipe for an extremely dangerous man who has already been knocking on the door for a title shot for some time.
The pick – Carmont may contain Souza in the first round, keeping him at distance with kicks and frustrating him up against the fence. However, Jacaré will be able to implement whatever offence he fancies before long. I’d fancy him to have success on the feet – possibly scoring a knockdown before finishing the fight with a submission.
Welterweight – Erick Silva vs. Takenori Sato
Once one of the golden boys of the UFC’s expansion into Brazil, Erick Silva has failed to make an impact in the welterweight pecking order thanks to an inconsistent 3-3 run. On the other hand it could be argued that his only ‘real’ losses have come against two outstanding fighters and he has looked very impressive in his three first-round bludgeonings of his other opponents.
It looks like Joe Silva has been kind to his namesake with this fight and given him a chance to rebound impressively from his shocking KO loss to Dong Hyun Kim in front of his home-country fans. Takenori Sato is athletically and skilfully inferior to Silva and will probably look like a lamb to the slaughter in this one.
The pick – Bet on Silva finishing this one early. The smart money is for him to come flying out of the gate, pummel Sato with some quick-fire punches and force the referee to wave the fight off.
Welterweight – Viscardi Andrade vs. Nicholas Musoke
The swing bout, and probably the least interesting fight on the main card, even for TUF Brazil fans.
Andrade looked like he belonged in the UFC last time out with a stoppage of Bristol Marunde, while Musoke proved he deserved his spot with a submission win at 15 pounds above his ideal weight class on short notice – even if it was Alessio Sakara he was facing.
Both men can strike and grapple, but neither seem to have much in the way of real dynamism to make them stand out from the rest of a highly talented welterweight pack unfortunately
The pick – Andrade by decision after three rounds of competitive, but unremarkable mixed martial arts
Featherweight – Charles Oliveira vs. Andy Ogle
I’m sorry to say this fight is a mismatch. Charles Oliveira may have a patchy record in the UFC, but his losses have only come against fighters of the highest calibre. His two losses at featherweight have come against the UFC’s #2 and #4 fighters, Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson. Oliveira can fight on the back foot or aggressively coming forward with rangy kickboxing, or wrap up his adversaries with all manner of contorting submissions.
‘The Little Axe’ Ogle is not a bad fighter. He is scrappy, good at working his way into a good top position and delivering ground and pound from guard. He also has a useful habit of outlasting his opponents and even getting better as the fight goes on. However, ‘Do Bronx’ would appear to have an advantage wherever this fight goes. Even if Ogle can get on top to rain down some punishment, Oliveira’s guard is so active he could just be putting himself straight into the jaws of defeat.
The Pick – Oliveira will do just that. Catch Ogle from his back with those long legs and lock up a submission before the fight reaches the final frame.
Prelims
Lightweight – Cristiano Marcello vs. Joe Proctor
Lightweight – Rodrigo Damm vs. Ivan Jorge
Lightweight – Francisco Trinaldo vs. Jesse Ronson
Bantamweight – Iuri Alcantara vs. Wilson Reis
Featherweight – Felipe Arantes vs. Maximo Blanco
Welterweight – Ildemar Alcantara vs. Albert Tumenov
Featherweight – Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Zubaira Tuhugov
