By Michael Ownes
Heavyweight – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Roy Nelson
At one point in time this would have been a fight between the most durable men in the sport. Not content with being hit by a bus as a youth, ‘Big Nog’ has maintained an almost career long reputation for withstanding a pasting before pulling off a miraculous submission. On the other hand, Roy Nelson just gets pasted. Either that or he lands an awesome hayemaker early on that obliterates his opponent.
If one fighter has changed with age, it’s Minotauro. Since 2008 he’s been back and forth without as much as a two-fight win streak, losing four fights by stoppage and they have not been pretty. Now, Roy Nelson is not going to pull off some kind of Frank Mir or Fabricio Werdum type submission wizardry, but he’s more than capable of landing one of those bricks on Nogueira’s chin. The Brazilian legend is slowing with every fight and his boxing is not up to that of his brother’s. He has a nice jab but nothing that’s going to put down the immovable ‘Big Country’. Worse yet, if he does want to take the fight to the mat he’s going to have a hell of a job.
The pick – A big Nelson right hand wilts Minotauro and a few coffin nails finish the job within two rounds.
Featherweight – Clay Guida vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Kawajiri is 5-0 as a featherweight, but this will be his biggest test at the weight class yet. Clay Guida stopped being a chaotic, exciting fighter long ago (unless he’s getting his arse kicked) and he’s more likely to trying to be a blanket more than ever now that he could be fighting for his job.
‘The Carpenter’ may have been TKO-d for the first time in his career last time out, but that was against superhuman Chad Mendes. Kawajiri does not have that kind of power. Furthermore, ‘The Crusher’ finds great success when he’s on top throwing plenty of elbows down to his opponent’s dome, but Guida will probably be too scramble-happy to go to his back. A Guida takedown is far more likely and once the fight is on the mat, Kawajiri will find it hard to get much done.
The pick – Guida by decision via takedown and hair-flopping
Welterweight – John Howard vs. Ryan LaFlare
This could well be LaFlare’s coming out party. He has hit the ground running in the UFC by setting a relentless pace in each of his three fights. He mixes up an array of strikes to unsettle his opponents and delivers heavy offence whethe fight goes to the mat. Although he has not finished anyone yet, it only seems to be a matter of time before he starts to pick up bonus cheques for badly wrecking other men.
With that said, he will have to watch out for John Howard. ‘Doomsday’ can take a punch (and a kick) very well, and he’s rarely out of a fight (ask Dennis Hallman). However, he is quite limited on the ground and is only ever really a threat when he is upright. He may be in for a rough night if he ends up on his back and LaFlare’s relentless barrage begins.
The pick – LaFlare, but by decision. He will dish out some big punishment but Howard will be able to tough it out until the final klaxon sounds.
Lightweight – Ramsey Nijem vs. Beneil Dariush
This is the toughest fight to call on the main card for me, purely because I’ve not seen too much of Dariush; his only fight in the UFC saw him hurt Charlie Brenneman on the feet before sticking an early submission that closed the show. all good. However, what that failed to show is how he will react when faced with a charging fighter who can actually hurt him with punches. By all accounts Dariush is not an expert in striking defence and is liable to be caught. If Nijem can connect we could have an upset on our hands.
As always, with action comes danger and Nijem is an expert at combining the two. James Vick and Myles Jury exposed the TUF finalist’s susceptibility to being stopped in both grappling and striking realms, and a grappler of Dariush’s calibre may expose that once more.
The pick – Beneil Dariush stays undefeated after getting that tap once again inside ten minutes.
Prelims:
Heavyweight – Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Jared Rosholt
Middleweight – Thales Leites vs. Trevor Smith
Featherweight – Jim Alers vs. Alan Omer
Bantamweight – Johnny Bedford vs. Rani Yahya
Middleweight – Andrew Craig vs. Chris Camozzi, CANCELLED. Craig pulled out with tonsillitis.
