By Michael Owens
It’s almost time for the first UFC on Fox show of the year. A wonderfully put-together main event will be supported by a solid – if unspectacular – undercard, which in turn will be supported by some intriguing prelims. A recipe for an appetising night in for sure. Let’s begin the breakdowns:
Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
It’s difficult not to match up two fighters for an exciting fight in the action packed lightweight division. Joe Silva has certainly passed this easy test by matching up two of the most historically entertaining competitors in MMA history. Better yet, they’re set to go five rounds.
Ben Henderson has got quite a lot of hate in the past couple of years. As soon as he got a title shot against Frankie Edgar back at the beginning of 2012 he seemed to abandon the all-out action style that had won hearts and minds during the previous few years during his WEC run and first three UFC fights. He would relentlessly look to land heavy strikes and pursue the takedown. Once he got to the ground he would always look for a submission or throw big power shots with bad intentions. With the title around his waist, he seemed to get away from that, but now he’s chasing it again the fire should be back.
Thomson is the perfect foil. Whether he’s giving Nate Diaz the beating of his life, pushing Gilbert Melendez to the absolute limit or even getting beaten in every aspect of the game by ‘Crusher’ Kawajiri, he just can’t seem to have a boring fight. The excitement level doesn’t just get raised up to 10 because of a tendency to brawl either. ‘The Punk’ utilises tremendous footwork to make the most of a strong jab and effective, subtle takedowns to find success.
This is a tough one to call, but Henderson will probably be just about too strong for Thomson. ‘Smooth’ Bendo is difficult to hurt, and it’s pretty hard to stop him from doing pretty much anything he wants to do. Thomson doesn’t have the kind of kicking game to give Henderson fits like Anthony Pettis did, and he will have real trouble if the fight gets tied up either in the clinch or on the ground. Both fighters are incredibly durable, so it would be a surprise to see a stoppage. Add in Benson’s hypnotic influence over judges that has seen him take decision he has not deserved in the past and it’s hard to look past him.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Gabriel Gonzaga is not a man whose fights are difficult to predict. He will either come in against an inferior opponent and make short work of them thanks to his colossal power or world class, and i mean world class BJJ. He is a true heavyweight and a man you wouldn’t want on top of you. His downfall is that he often decides against using his grappling and he gets cracked on the feet. He’s not the most durable guy and six of his seven losses have been by KO or TKO. THe question is; can Stipe Miocic stay out of danger and make Gonzaga pay?
Yes. As long as Miocic stays on the outside and moves in and out quickly – making good use of his jab – he should have little problem in outworking the Brazilian and working towards harder strikes to put him down. If he can do all of that, expect a stoppage late in the second or into the third round. Just watch out for the clinch. If ‘Napão’ uses his head and can drag the fight to the mat, then Miocic is in a world of trouble and could leave the cage minus an arm.
Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
This is another fight where the outcome really depends on one man. In this case, it’s Donald Cerrone. ‘Cowboy’ has beautiful Muay Thai, underrated wrestling and a slick submission game, particularly off his back. His focus has let him down one too many times in his recent history though. Although he was beaten by very good fighters, something just seemed off when he faced Nate Diaz and Rafael Dos Anjos. He was outworked and outstruck on the way to decision losses on both occasions.
Martins certainly has the power to cause Cerrone a few problems. He has even more skill on the mat. He also will not be hopelessly outmatched in the size and reach department like many of the Coloradan’s previous conquests. With that said, if Cerrone is on his game he has the overwhelming advantage on the feet and he developed sufficient takedown defence long ago. Cerrone to win via stoppage by strikes.
Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Fox cards usually mean one thing and that’s a barnstorming fight to open the main card. The choice of Jeremy Stephens for this role seems appropriate because of his propensity for smashing people up. ‘Lil’ Heathen’ had quite the campaign of violence at lightweight which included highlight KOs of Marcus Davis, Cole Miller and Rafael Dos Anjos. However, he was in danger of being bounced from the UFC after a three-fight skid. One cut to 145 pounds and a devastating KO of Rony ‘Jason’ though, and he’s back on track.
Darren Elkins is a prime candidate to put a spanner in the works, not only for Stephens but for the UFC’ appetite for an explosive kick-start to tomorrow night’s event. He is a grinder and more than capable of dragging the fight to the mat, where he can control position and land more than enough offence to keep the fight there and convincingly win rounds. He has has trouble against big power before, but Chad Mendes is on a whole other level to Elkins’s opponent in Chicago. Pile your money on an Elkins decision.
(Please note, I am in no way responsible for any lost money from UFC gambling).
What to watch out for on the prelims:
Look no further than the two fights that will immediately precede the main card. Sergio Pettis – brother of lightweight champ Anthony – will face a real test in his second Octagon bout against Alex Caceres. Pettis faced gritty Will Campuzano in his first UFC appearance, but he had the advantage of a full training camp. Campuzano was a late replacement. ‘Bruce Leroy’ on the other hand has had just as long to prepare for this fight, and will provide a test that flies in the face of his comedic TUF persona. SInce his reality show appearance he has developed into a technical, well rounded fighter and will be a bigger fighter than his opponent.
Right before that fight, rugged brawler Eddie Wineland will look to bounce back from his defeat to Renan Barão by overcoming the technical striking of Yves Jabouin. Wineland has the tools to come in and make life hell for Jabouin – who excels at fighting on the outside – at close range. He has the power to win by KO.
Full UFC on Fox 10 lineup:
Main Card
Lightweight – Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
Heavyweight – Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Lightweight – Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
Featherweight – Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Prelims
Bantamweight – Alex Caceres vs. Sergio Pettis
Bantamweight – Yves Jabouin vs. Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight – Chico Camus vs. Yaotzin Meza
Bantamweight – Ramiro Hernandez vs. Hugo Viana
Lightweight – Daron Cruickshank vs. Mike Rio
Welterweight – Mike Rhodes vs. George Sullivan
Heavyweight – Walt Harris vs. Nikita Krylov
