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UFC FN 100 Sao Paulo poster
UFC FN 100 Sao Paulo poster

Welcome once again to the MMA Plus Betting Guide where we run through each week’s UFC events to see where the best value bets are to line your pockets. After great results at UFC 205 last weekend where we finished +19.5pts for the event (based on one point per bet), let’s see if lightning can again strike twice for all of us degenerate gamblers in Sao Paulo.

This week we have two events with UFC Fight Night 99 in Belfast coming to us at a UK friendly time of 5pm for once and then followed by UFC Fight Night 100 from Sao Paulo which starts around 11:30pm.

My MMA Plus colleague and token Irishman, Sean Ryan will try to bring you the luck of the Irish with the Belfast card and I will guide you through everything you need to know before putting your hard earned cash on these early morning fights.

 

Ryan Bader (21-5) 1/4 vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-7) 3/1 – Light-Heavyweight

A fight we have already seen in 2010 on the UFC 119 card, this needless rematch serves the purpose of allowing UFC to wheel out “Lil Nog” in Brazil with those opportunities fading with the Brazilian now 40 years old.

I can’t see the fight going any differently from the first where Bader used his superior wrestling and takedowns to secure a unanimous decision victory. Now it’s five years later and “Darth” has improved considerably especially with his stand up.

At the age of Nogueira, his skills are bound to have diminished and retirement surely looms for the Brazilian. Bader should control this fight in every area and go a step better getting the finish this time around in Sao Paulo.

Tip: Ryan Bader to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 7/2

 

Thomas Almeida (21-1) 3/10 vs. Albert Morales (6-0-1) 13/5 – Bantamweight

Thomas Almeida was considered the brightest prospect in the UFC Bantamweight division until suffering his first loss by first round KO to Cody Garbrandt who not only side tracked the Brazilian’s quest for the top but also seemed to drain his momentum.

His first fight since then will come against a much lesser skilled opponent in Morales who’s nowhere near the top-15 rankings and should be the set up fight that “Thominhas” needs to show off his explosive striking and get back on the right track.

Beware at these prices however as Almeida has shown now that he is hittable and that he can’t take those shots from everyone and Morales showed toughness to stand and trade with Alejandro Perez in his last outing which ended in a draw.

Tip: Thomas Almeida to win in Round 2 at 22/5

 

Claudia Gadelha (13-2) 2/9 vs. Cortney Casey (6-3) 17/5 – Strawweight

Trying to bounce back from another unsuccessful attempt at dethroning Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the UFC Strawweight title, Gadelha will be buoyed by the current state of play in such a shallow division that means she’s just a few wins from getting another chance.

Switching camps to Jackson Wink MMA, Gadelha will have made changes to her game and I expect her movement to be much better than previous appearances and her stand up to be sharper.

Cortney Casey is currently on a two fight win streak and a win against the Brazilian in Sao Paulo could catapult her into title contention however I think Gadelha is better in all areas of the games and outmatches Casey across the board.

With “Cast Iron” living up to her name, I don’t see a finish here so get on Gadelha to win this over the distance

Tip: Claudia Gadelha to win by unanimous decision at 27/20

 

Krzysztof Jotko (18-1) 11/8 vs. Thales Leites (26-6) 20/33 – Middleweight

A top-10 guy in the Middleweight division who can’t seem to beat the elite above him, Thales Leites is still a good dangerous fighter who pushed current Middleweight champion Michael Bisping the distance and only lost by a close split decision.

The Brazilian looks value here at these odds and I expect him to put in a standout performance against Krzysztof Jotko who, with only one KO in his last 12 wins, doesn’t have the power to test Leites.

Jotko’s only way to victory would be to remain on the outside and try to score points with distance strikes to take a decision but I can’t see it happening and will be confidently lumping on Leites.

Tip: Thales Leites to win KO/TKO, Submission or Technical Decision at 19/10

 

Warlley Alves (10-1) 9/5 vs. Kamaru Usman (8-1) 4/9 – Welterweight

One of the more interesting match-ups on the card, both these guys are powerhouses but I’m not expecting fireworks in Sao Paulo.

Usman is a former collegiate wrestler who was on the practice squad for the Olympic team and has been developing his striking which looking better every time we see him in the octagon.

He will look to take the fight to Alves, use his superior stand up to set up the grappling and takedowns and grind this out over three rounds. Alves is a submission specialist with a nasty guillotine however I think Usman can keep himself safe and in control of the bout.

Tip: Kamaru Usman to win by unanimous decision at 27/20

 

Sergio Moraes (10-2-1) 4/7 vs. Zak Ottow (14-3) 29/20 – Welterweight

Sergio Moraes is one of the most frustrating fighters to have your hard earned money on and here’s why:

Moraes is an elite level BJJ coach who coaches black belts and has so much talent and skill when on the ground. The catch here is the Brazilian also has low fight IQ leading to him trying to stand and bang with people, throwing his natural advantages out the window.

Zak Ottow showed in his recent UFC debut against Josh Burkman that he’s a good solid fighter who can stuff the takedowns and use his boxing from distance to pick off fighters. He didn’t look troubled last time out and can deliver as an underdog once again.

Tip: Zak Ottow to win by decision at 27/10

 

Cezar Ferreira (10-5) 9/5 vs. Jack Hermansson (14-2) 4/9 – Middleweight

RED PANTIE NIGHT ALERT

I really like “The Joker” in this one. A gust of wind is enough to put Ferreira and his notorious glass jaw to sleep and with three KO’s in his last six fights, Hermansson has the power to trouble the home fighter early.

Ferreira has some crazy grappling so Hermansson needs to work to keep this on the feet but I’m hoping for the finish before that comes into play. Let’s go for the quick finish for my UFC Sao Paulo “Red Pantie Night” Tip of the Week.

RPN Tip of the Week: Jack Hermansson to win within 60 seconds at 9/1

 

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (18-4) 27/20 vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3-1) 20/33 – Light-Heavyweight

Antigulov was the Absolute Championship Berkut Light-Heavyweight champion in Russia and has looked great in the process currently riding a 12 fight win streak and four consecutive first round finishes.

De Lima is the bigger fighter and has some nasty power but that shouldn’t trouble the tough Russian’s chin. I expect De Lima to tire in the later rounds and Antigulov to use his Sambo game to grind away and beat the Brazilian to a pulp and get a finish or decision to make an impact in Sao Paulo.

Tip: Gadzhimurad Antigulov to win in Round 1 at 18/5

 

Manny Gamburyan (15-9 1NC) 13/10 vs. Johnny Eduardo (27-10) 20/31– Bantamweight

Gamburyan has shown himself to have strong wrestling abilities and is good at closing the distance to get to where he needs to be. Losing to John Dodson his last time out, he faces a big step down in opposition in Eduardo.

“Pretinho” has only fought once in two and a half years and looked to be very weak on the ground in that bout against Aljamain Sterling but has decent striking and is capable of doing damage.

The Brazilian is capable of hurting Gamburyan on the feet but if “The Anvil” goes in with a gameplan and sticks to his strengths then he should come out on top.

Tip: Manny Gamburyan to win to decision at 3/1

 

Christian Colombo (8-1-1) 23/10 vs. Luis Henrique (9-2 1NC) 5/14 – Heavyweight

Colombo is hot off the heels of taking part in one of the worst matches of the year against Jarjis Danho in a tedious and boring majority draw and if the 36-year-old wants to grapple again then it won’t go well for him here.

Henrique has a solid wrestling background and at 23 years old, has bounced back from his defeat to the phenomenal Francis Ngannou by smothering and dominating Dmitry Smolyakov in his last fight before winning with a second round submission.

Henrique is developing all the time and looks like one to watch. I’m expecting him to have no trouble rolling over “Godzilla” here.

Tip: Luis Henrique to win in Round 2 at 17/4

 

Pedro Munhoz (13-2) 8/5 vs. Justin Scoggins (11-2) 10/19 – Bantamweight

This is Scoggin’s first fight since moving up to Bantamweight after issues making the 125lb Flyweight limit. The 24-year-old is a good all-rounder and has looked like a hot prospect so far in his UFC career.

He is still a work in progress and when on the ground can play a bit fast and loose, leaving his head and limbs exposed to submission attempts and that could be bad news for him against BJJ specialist Munhoz.

Munhoz would only need a small opening to lock on a submission but I believe Scoggins will have been working on this coming into the fight and looks good value to get his first win in his new divisional home.

Tip: Justn Scoggins to win by decision at 8/5

 

Francimar Barroso (18-5) 20/31 vs. Darren Stewart (7-0) 13/10 – Light-Heavyweight

East London fighter Darren Stewart makes his UFC debut in Brazil and although his opponent has the home field advantage, I like the Brit to get the business done in this fight.

Barroso specialises in BJJ but has looked underwhelming so far sneaking narrow decisions before being choked out by Nikita Krylov in his last bout. Stewart is the far superior striker and should have the speed and power advantage in the stand up.

Although small for the weight class at 5’10, get on “The Dentist” to silence the early birds in Sao Paulo that show up for this opening bout.

Tip: Darren Stewart to win by KO/TKO at 3/1

 

That’s it for this week and UFC Fight Night 100 in Sao Paulo. Let’s hope to smash the bookies as badly as last weekend. Next week we will be taking a look at UFC Fight Night 101 from Melbourne, Australia but until then please feel free to bet irresponsibly

All odds are supplied by Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing.