It’s a brand new MMA Plus Betting Guide with your resident degenerate gambler. This week we have UFC 208 from the Barclays Centre in Brooklyn, New York and a main event which will see the first UFC Women’s featherweight champion crowned as former bantamweight champion Holly Holm takes on kickboxing sensation Germaine de Randamie.
After the first three UFC events of the year, we found ourselves off to a fantastic start at +16.5pts profit over all bets with clear profit for every event of 2017 so far. We plan to continue building on this with consistent profit throughout the year. Here are all the top tips for the upcoming UFC 208 card from Brooklyn.
UFC 208 Main Event
Holly Holm (10-2) 11/10 vs. Germaine De Randamie (6-3) 10/13 – UFC Womens Featherweight Title
I was completely surprised when I discovered this line had been released from the bookmakers making Holly Holm the underdog. Christmas has truly come around once again in the Rodger family household with this gift as there’s no doubt I like Holm in this fight…. but I love her at these prices!
Holm may be coming off a poor performance against Valentina Shevchenko however that was the faster, more rounded and younger number one contender. Luckily for Holm, she will hold the speed advantage and ground advantage over pure striker Germaine De Randamie and is more experienced over five rounds.
De Randamie is a good fighter but now trains part time back in The Netherlands and has never fought a notable opponent in MMA other than a TKO defeat to current Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. Although she’s a ferocious striker and has a stellar kickboxing record, I don’t think she’s at the level of Holm in the Octagon.
After hearing that she’s working on her BJJ this camp over at Jackson-Wink MMA, I expect Holm to go for a takedown and play more to her strengths whilst wearing down De Randamie. Anything better than evens to me is a gift and I’ll happily accept by backing “The Preacher’s Daughter” to get the win.
Tip: Holly Holm to win by KO/TKO at 37/10 (single)
UFC 208 main card
Anderson Silva (33-8) 6/5 vs. Derek Brunson (16-4) 20/29 – Middleweight
Jacare Souza (23-4) 2/11 vs. Tim Boetsch (20-10) 4/1 – Middleweight
Glover Teixeira (25-5) 5/11 vs. Jared Cannonier (9-1) 9/5 – Light-Heavyweight
Jim Miller (28-8) 29/10 vs. Dustin Poirier (8/5) 4/15 – Lightweight
On the rest of the main card, we have all the favourites with some being good priced and others not so much but I just can’t see past any of the four so let’s see how the prop bets look.
With Anderson Silva now aged 41 and well past his prime, I have no desire to place money on him when his last clean win came way back in 2012. Derek Brunson was reckless in his last fight and will hopefully go back to his wrestling fundamentals after being knocked out by Robert Whittaker. Despite “The Spider’s” age, he’s still a dangerous and durable striker so hopefully Brunson has planned to neutralise it and will grind out a decision.
The next fight makes no sense to me other than for Jacare Souza to keep busy as Tim Boetsch should stand nothing more than a puncher’s chance against the Brazilian. I fully expect Souza to have his way everywhere with him as he’s the much better fighter and I like the chances of a signature submission finish for Souza.
Another match-up that makes very little sense, Jared Cannonier doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near the Top-15 of the LHW division despite his recent success. Glover Teixeira took a good spell off after being knocked out by Anthony Johnson so should return to form as the much more skilled opponent and I like the hugely underpriced Brazilian to go to the mat where he should easily outmatch Cannonier.
Dustin Poirier only struggles against top-level strikers like Conor McGregor and Michael Johnson so a brawling grinder like Jim Miller should be easy work for him. Miller’s getting on in age and recovered from Lyme Disease to get back in the cage so I expect the younger, more athletic fighter to have the upper hand on the feet and cope with whatever Miller throws his way from the bottom.
Tip: Brunson/Poirier to win and Souza/Teixeira to win by KO/TKO or Sub – 5/1 (fourfold)
UFC 208 Prelims
Randy Brown (9-1) 5/7 vs. Belal Muhammad (10-2) 23/20 – Welterweight
Wilson Reis (21-6) 1/6 vs. Ulka Sasaki (19-3-2) 17/4 – Flyweight
Islam Makhachev (13-1) 1/3 vs. Nik Lentz (27-7-2) 47/20 – Lightweight
Ian McCall (13-5-1) 21/20 vs. Jared Brooks (12-0) 4/5 – Flyweight
Roan Carneiro (21-10) 5/2 vs. Ryan LaFlare (12-1) 5/16 – Welterweight
Phillipe Nover (11-7-1) 17/10 vs. Rick Glen (18-4-1) 10/21 – Featherweight
Pancrase fighter Jarred Brooks comes in to make his UFC debut in Brooklyn as a very slight favourite over the veteran Ian McCall who himself is coming back after more than two years out and nine cancelled fights. That’s a lot of dead end training camps for him to stay motivated so I like the young and hungry 23-year-old in this spot.
Although I like Islam Makhachev, his path to victory is through his wrestling which may well backfire over the experienced grinder Nik Lentz. “The Carnie” has had no trouble in the past rolling over very seasoned grapplers with his own physicality and ground skills so is a great shout for the upset.
To top off this underdog treble, I am leaning towards Belal Muhammad over Randy Brown who’s looked underwhelming despite facing mediocre opponents. Muhammad impressed in his UFC run until being starched by the talented Vicente Luque last time out however I think he has the tools to trouble Brown who won’t have the power to catch the ex-Titan FC champion out.
Tip: Muhammad, Lentz and Brooks to win at 12/1 (treble)
All odds and markets from Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing.
