It’s a brand new MMA Plus Betting Guide with your resident degenerate gambler. This week we have UFC Fight Night 104 from the Toyota Centre in Houston, Texas and a main event featuring the return of “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung who will face divisional contender Dennis Bermudez.

After the first two UFC events of the year, we found ourselves off to a good start at +9.5pts profit over all bets and plan to continue building on this with consistent profit throughout the year. Here are all the top tips for the upcoming UFC Fight Night 104 card from Houston

Main Event Betting Tip

Chan Sung Jung (13-4) 33/20 vs. Dennis Bermudez (16-5) 1/2 – Featherweight

Despite the excitement surrounding his return and his large fan base, “The Korean Zombie” enters this fight as an underdog, however I favour making money to getting nostalgic so pile into Dennis Bermudez to give Jung a rude awakening after a three-year absence from the sport.

After such a long hiatus, I fully expected Jung to be given a tune-up fight and perhaps a kinder stylistic match-up on his return however I think he will be in for a very frustrating night against in-form wrestler Bermudez. Known for his striking, Jung may have difficulties with the strength and physicality of the New Yorker’s grappling game and could find himself neutralised throughout the fight.

“The Menace” has been on the warpath since a loss to Jeremy Stephens at UFC 189 saw him go back to the drawing board and since then he has two impressive victories over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason to put him back in the top-10 at Featherweight. Having rediscovered his wrestling fundamentals and now improving his fight IQ to avoid a fire fight and play to his strengths, Bermudez has all the tools needed to beat the South Korean.

With the odds not looking great across the board for this one, I’ll be making Bermudez a corner stone of my weekend accumulators however the degenerate gambler within is screaming “Easy Money!” at the prospect of almost doubling up on him repeating his recent victories and going the distance to get the win.

Tip: Dennis Bermudez – by Unanimous Decision at 39/20 (Single)

Main Card

Alexa Grasso (9-0) 3/10 vs. Felice Herrig (11-6) 13/5 – Women’s Strawweight

Abel Trujillo (15-6) 10/11 vs. James Vick (9-1) 10/11 – Lightweight

Ovince St. Preux (19-9) 2/7 vs. Volkan Oezdemir (12-1) 27/10 – Light-Heavyweight

Anthony Hamilton (15-6) 1/2 vs. Marcel Fortuna (8-1) 13/8 – Heavyweight

Jessica Andrade (15-5) 2/11 vs. Angela Hill (6-2) 4/1 – Women’s Strawweight

The rest of the main card this week is filled with odds-on favourites and which means we will have to get creative in order to find some value even with a fourfold bet.

Alexa Grasso is the big hope of Mexican MMA after impressing during her Invicta FC run before making it to the UFC and beating Heather Jo Clarke in her debut to stay undefeated. I expect her perfect record to remain and even like her chances of getting the finish over Felice Herrig who has looked very ordinary in her UFC career so far despite a record of 2-1 in the promotion.

The best value on the main card can be found in backing James Vick who will hold a large height advantage and a six-inch reach advantage over opponent Abel Trujillo. Trujillo has struggled in the past to deal with a strong jab and that along with the reach and power of Vick will have him in all sorts of problems.

Although I think Ovince St. Preux will win, I would rather avoid him at these prices against the unknown that is the debuting Swiss fighter Volkan Oezdemir especially after the vicious knockout he suffered at the hands of Jimi Manuwa at UFC 204. Instead we will add Jessica Andrade to get the finish over Invicta FC champion Angela Hill as she’s on another level and is destined to be the next number one contender in the Strawweight division.

Finally, send me to the asylum as I think Anthony Hamilton looks a great pick this week against the underwhelming Marcel Fortuna who not only usually fights at light-heavyweight and is nearly 50lbs lighter but struggles to effectively land his takedowns so there’s no way he’s pulling “Freight Train” to the ground.

Tip: Grasso, Vick, Hamilton to win and Andrade – by KO/TKO or Submission at 5.7/1 (Fourfold)

Prelims

Adam Milstead (8-1) 12/5 vs. Curtis Blaydes (6-1) 1/3 – Heavyweight

Chas Skelly (16-2) 4/11 vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (13-1) 11/5 – Featherweight

Ricardo Ramos (9-1) 29/20 vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-2) 4/7 – Bantamweight

Tecia Torres (7-1) 5/14 vs. Bec Rawlings (7-5) 23/10 – Women’s Strawweight

Alex Morono (13-3) Evs vs. Niko Price (9-0) 5/6 – Welterweight

Khalil Rountree (4-2) 20/33 vs. Daniel Jolly (5-1) 27/20 – Light-Heavyweight

The favourites continue to dominate my picks in the prelims as the bookies seem to have got their pricing right from top to bottom. Curtis Blaydes looked better than anyone else has when losingto the phenomenal Francis Ngannou and should have enough to put away Adam Milstead who’s on the small side for a UFC heavyweight.

Chris Gruetzemacher has a good record on paper however if you have been knocked out by Artem Lobov then I have lost faith in you forever. For that reason look to Chas Skelly to finish off “Grits” who’s looked a shadow of the fighter who ran roughshod over the regional scene.

Finally an underdog worth taking, Ricardo Ramos impressed Dana White when he was scouted through UFC’s YouTube show “Looking for a Fight.” He possesses very sharp striking and has a high intensity which could cause problems for Michinori Tanaka who’s looked unimpressive so far in his UFC outings.

Tecia Torres is one of the fastest fighters in the women’s strawweight division and her speed should overwhelm the flat footed Bec Rawlings who will be beaten to the punch every time she enters the pocket.

I really liked the look of Niko Price his last time out against Brandon Thatch at UFC 207 however after being burnt twice in a row when backing against Alex Morono, I’m hesitant to try for third time lucky and will probably avoid this match-up all together. Repeat for Khalil Rountree who has the paths to victory with his devastating power but is too error prone to be trusted against a hometown Texas fighter in Daniel Jolly.

Tip: Skelly and Ramos to win, Blaydes – KO/TKO or Submission and Torres – Points at 9.31/1 (Fourfold)

All odds and markets correct at time of writing and provided by Ladbrokes.com