Welcome to a brand new MMA Plus Betting Guide with your resident degenerate gambler Stuart Rodger. This week we take a look at UFC 209 live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and the main event which will see a battle between Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson in a rematch of UFC 205’s majority draw which will finally decide who the true Welterweight champion is.
After the first five UFC events of the year, we found ourselves off to a decent start at +11.5pts profit over all bets with clear profit for every event of 2017 so far up until taking small hits in the past two events. We all hit these slumps though and one bet will reverse the fortunes and get our numbers moving back in the right direction.
UFC 209 Main Event
Tyron Woodley (16-3-1) 5/4 vs. Stephen Thompson (13-1-1) 2/3 – Welterweight Title
After their first fight at UFC 205 ended in an extremely close draw, we run back this Welterweight title bout to find a true winner.
I can see this fight being just as close as it was in November however I feel we’ve seen the best of Woodley whereas “Wonderboy” didn’t reach the level we know he is capable of. Thompson was able to take the big right hand of Woodley thats decimated others before him and after his chin held up previously, should be more confident this time round.
With Thompson’s unorthodox style, it’s impossible to train for what he’s going to bring your way regardless of Woodley bringing in Sage Northcutt. I see this fight going into the later rounds and I see Thompson taking over the longer the fight goes. Look to the over 2.5 rounds markets for easy profit however I’ll back “Wonderboy” to get the late finish.
Tip: Stephen Thompson to win in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 5/1
UFC 209 Main Card
Lando Vannata (9-1) 1/4 vs. David Teymur (5-1) 31/10 – Lightweight
Rashad Evans (19-5-1) 10/23 vs. Daniel Kelly (12-1) 19/10 – Middleweight
Amanda Cooper (3-2) Evs vs. Cynthia Calvillo (3-0) 5/6 – Strawweight
Mark Hunt (12-10-1) 23/20 vs. Alistair Overeem (41-15) 8/11 – Heavyweight
In the co-main event, KO of the year winner Lando Vannata returns to face fellow dangerous striker David Teymur in what’s sure to be an exciting fight. Vannata has a great wrestling background although we haven’t seen it in his UFC career so far and he may use it to neutralise the Swede and avoid a striking battle. Teymur is no joke though with a KO of the night win in his last performance. I really don’t like the line on this one with Vannata being overpriced due to the hype train circling him just now. I think Vannata will win but the value isn’t there unless you look into the overs markets.
Rashad Evans returns after finally being cleared to fight by Nevada even though New York and Canada denied him a license due to an underlying medical condition. Despite this, I still think he has the speed, power and superior ability to beat Dan Kelly. Old Man Kelly excels with his Judo and the former Olympian is tough as nails. He can be rocked though and favours a dirty brawl. Evans has fought the very best and was considered elite in his younger days so should have too much for the Australian to handle and I’d be tempted to back him to finish the fight.
At the age of 42 and desperate for a paycheck, Mark Hunt re-enters the Octagon to face Alistair Overeem. Although “Super Samoan” has the one-punch KO power, Overeem has been fighting more sensibly lately and if he can stay away from the big shots in round 1, Hunt will gas. I also expect “The Reem” to use his takedowns in this one and I think he makes it look easy over a demotivated Hunt.
Moved up from the early prelims, Team Alpha Male prospect Cynthia Calvillo makes her debut against former TUF competitor Amanda Cooper. Cooper has really struggled against grapplers and that’s Calvillo’s bread and butter. Calvillo was a good amateur but hasn’t been fighting for long and Cooper has the advantage in the striking. Calvillo’s extremely tough though and I expect her to get the job done over the distance
Tip: Evans, Overeem to win and Calvillo to win by Decision at 11/2 (Treble)
UFC 209 Prelims
Marcin Tybura (14-2) 10/17 vs. Luis Henrique (10-2) 7/5 – Heavyweight
Mirsad Bektic (11-0) 2/15 vs. Darren Elkins (21-5) 5/1 – Featherweight
Iuri Alcantara (34-7) 11/10 vs. Luke Sanders (11-0) 10/13 – Bantamweight
Daniel Spitz (5-0) 5/4 vs. Mark Godbeer (11-3) 2/3 – Heavyweight
Paul Craig (9-0) 11/10 vs. Tyson Pedro (5-0) 10/13 – Light-Heavyweight
Albert Morales (6-1-1) 8/11 vs. Andre Soukhamthath (11-3) 23/20 – Bantamweight
Luis Henrique has a path to victory over the dangerous striker Marcin Tybura despite being the underdog. He’s only 23 making him the youngest UFC Heavyweight and has an effective grinding style that Tybura has struggled with in the past and even Francis Ngannou took time to get to grips with.
Luke Sanders is the younger fighter and is a talented undefeated prospect in the Bantamweight division. I expect him to beat the ageing Iuri Alcantara but he needs to watch out for the Brazilian’s very effective submissions.
Andre Soukhamthath is the more technical fighter with some really crisp striking and I expect him to inpress on his debut. Albert Morales is a tough brawler and it worries me that if he sticks around, Soukhamthath might struggle to deal with the constant pressure. I still like the outsider to get the job done.
Nonsense prices for this one as although Mirsad Bektic is the rising prospect, Darren Elkins is a tough grinder who gives everyone problems. Bektic struggled against Chas Skelly and this is a similar style match-up so I’m swerving this although on the night I could be tempted to stick a little money on the big underdog.
Tip: Henrique,Sanders and Soukhamthath to win at 8/1 (Treble) and Elkins to win by Decision at 15/2 (Single)
All odds provided by Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing
