In the last edition of Head 2 Head in 2016, we take an in-depth, by the numbers look at the a women’s Bantamweight title fight between Amanda “Lioness” Nunes who makes the first defence of the belt she won at UFC 200, against the returning WMMA pioneer “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey.
The date, Saturday December 30, the venue, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, at UFC 207 Brazil’s Nunes (13-4) will look to be the first Bantamweight to successfully defend the belt since Rousey’s (12-1) two and a half year reign as champion was brought to an end by Holly Holm.
Using FightMetrics, we look at the following areas to try to determine the most likely outcome of this intriguing encounter at UFC 207: –
SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy
SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defence (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)
TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes
TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy
TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)
Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
You would be forgiven for thinking that Rousey (SLpM: 4.05) who won an Olympic bronze medal in judo at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing would be at a massive disadvantage in this department against an opponent who began training in Karate at the tender age of four years old.
Although Nunes does have the edge in significant strikes landed per minute it is only marginal with the champion only landing on average only 1.8 (SLpM: 4.23) more then her American counterpart.
Advantage: Nunes
Significant Striking Accuracy
It’s even between both fighters in the significant strikes accuracy department with both Nunes and Rousey at the 52% accuracy mark.
Despite things being all square in terms of significant strikes accuracy there is a vast difference between what happens when the pair land, with “Lioness” managing to score 10 career KO/TKO wins including three of her last six UFC wins, stopping Sheila Gaff, Germaine de Randamie and Shayna Baszler.
In contrast the Rowdy one has only managed two career wins via KO/TKO which came against Alexis Davis at UFC 175 and Bethe Correia at UFC 190.
Advantage: Even
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute
In this area it is American Top Team trained Nunes who has the edge, absorbing 0.55 (SApM 2.81) less strikes per minutes then former champion Rousey (SApM 3.36).
Despite being at a disadvantage on paper, the former Strikeforce and UFC champion has still managed to be elusive enough, for long enough during her 13-fight career to finish all bar one of her opponents (Holly Holm) in under 11-minutes.
Advantage: Nunes
Significant Strike Defence
Given her lifetime of training in the striking arts it is no surprise that the “Lioness” also has an advantage in the significant strike defence, but only just. The 28-year-old is only 5% (Str. Def: 49%) better off the the “Rowdy” one (Str. Def: 44%) in this department.
Unfortunately for the defending champion despite the edge she still suffered two KO/TKO losses in her career against Alexis Davis at Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Kharitonov and most recently against Cat Zingano at UFC 178 in September 2014.
Advantage: Nunes
Average Takedowns Landed (per 15 minutes)
Now we enter Rousey’s world with the 29-year-old having a massive advantage in this area. As a result she has been able to secure on average 4.36 more (TD Avg.: 6.43) takedowns every 15 minutes than the defending champion (TD Avg.: 2.07).
It is this advantage that has seen the Glendale Fight Team trained fighter finish nine of her 12 opponents on the ground with the last of those submission wins coming against the last woman to defeat her UFC 207 opponent, Cat Zingano, who she finished in just 14 seconds at UFC 184.
Advantage: Rousey
Takedown Accuracy
With Olympic judo bronze medallist having the advantage in average takedowns landed per 15 minutes department the trend continues here, with a superior takedown accuracy (TD Acc.: 68%) making her a 30 percent better off then Nunes (TD Acc.: 38%).
It is the 29-years mastery of the “osoto throw” that has resulted in her being able to secure over two thirds of all the takedowns she attempts and once the fight hits the canvas more often then not the end of the fight follows shortly there after.
Despite this disadvantage the Brazilian has managed to land 6 takedowns in her last 10 appearances.
Advantage: Rousey
Takedown Average
The trend continues here as it has become more and more apparent during our analysis that this meeting of two female juggernauts is a true clash of styles with Nunes dominating the striking and Rousey coming out on top when the fight hits the canvas.
As a result in the takedown accuracy department the American comes out on top (TD Avg.: 6.43) averaging 4.36 more takedowns then then the champion (TD Avg.: 2.07).
Advantage: Rousey
Takedown Defence
In the takedown defence department surprisingly it is Nunes who comes out on top in this area (73% TD Def.), managing to avoid 23 percent more attempts to take her down during her career compared to Rousey (50% TD Def.).
Advantage: Nunes
Average Submissions Attempted (per 15 minutes)
Rousey did not earn the nickname “The Arm Collector” for nothing averaging (Sub. Avg.: 4.9) attempts every 15-minutes and submitting 9 of her 13 opponents during the course of her career.
Her opponent averages 3.7 less submission attempts every 15-minutes (Sub. Avg.: 1.2) then the former champion but despite this has managed to submit 3 of her 17 opponents in her career.
Advantage: Rousey
Conclusion
Statistically this fight is even with both fighters on the whole dominating proceedings in the areas you would expect them to. Despite this bookies have made Rousey a big favourite with odds of -134 going in her bid to reclaim the title she lost over a year ago. But with the champion stopping 5 of her last 8 opponents and riding a 3-fight win streak it would be foolish to write her off.
Let us know who wins, Nunes or Rousey? Comment below.
