Welcome once again to the MMA Plus Betting guide where we run through each week’s UFC events to see where the best value bets are to line your pockets. This week we have UFC on Fox 22 from the Golden 1 Centre that see’s Michelle Waterson return from a long injury lay off to face talented Team Alpha Male product Paige Van Zant in her adopted home of Sacramento, California.
After a good run since UFC 205, we are +36.9pts overall on all of our tips and will look to roll on and continue to profit this week. Also look out for this week’s Red Panty Night Tip of the Week and jump on it to treat yourself to a new pair of alligator skin brogues.
Paige Van Zant (7-2) 10/11 vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4) 10/11 – Strawweight
RED PANTY NIGHT TIP OF THE WEEK
At only 22-years-old, Van Zant is still developing and shows a new side to her game every time she enters the octagon whether that be the heart shown in her defeat to Rose Namajunas or the new found confidence shown in her switch kick KO victory over Bec Rawlings. She has great cardio and will keep coming at her opponent throughout the fight keeping the pressure on until the bitter end.
Michelle Waterson is an extremely talented fighter who comes from a karate background and has the advantage of being a lifelong martial artist. Now training at Jackson’s MMA, the former Invicta Atomweight champion has very good striking and works best at range where she can pick opponents off. During her time in Invicta, she was known to fade towards the end of longer fights and it has cost her previously.
I really like “12 Gauge” Paige in this match up as stylistically she’s going to rush in and not allow Waterson to work from the kind of distance she’s best from. Van Zant is like a terrier and will keep coming forwards again and again and has shown extreme determination and tenacity in past fights to come back and win after weathering a storm in the early rounds.
Waterson will take the first round but in a five round fight, I like Van Zant to continue to look good as UFC build a star who is already a headline name Stateside after finishing runner up in “Dancing With The Stars”. Van Zant’s prices have been sliding all week so I’m on the young prospect to grab the decision victory to deliver a fantastic return. This is comfortably my bet of the week and I’ll be throwing the house on it.
RPN Tip of the Week: Paige Van Zant to win by Decision at 14/5
Sage Northcutt (8-1) 7/10 vs. Mickey Gall (3-0) 6/5 – Welterweight
The co-main event of this card is a fun fight between two of the hottest prospects in the Welterweight division as Sage Northcutt faces Mickey Gall as someone’s “Looking for a Fight” hype train is about to become derailed.
I really have my doubts over all the plaudits being thrown Mickey Gall’s way at the moment. In his three professional fights, the 24-year-old has fought absolutely nobody of UFC standard with his first fight being on a small regional show where he called out CM Punk and was spotted by Dana White on the popular UFC YouTube show. Two more wins over a part time photographer and a professional wrestler brings us to here where he’s never been under any sort of pressure and never had that gut check moment.
Despite all the hate directed at Sage Northcutt, he has earned his record the hard way and was spotted on the same YouTube series but on a Legacy FC show. Before that he was an undefeated kickboxer with a 15-0 record and has won 77 karate world championships and is still only 20-years old so has a skillset which demands respect. Northcutt is 3-1 since his UFC debut and has fought some tough opponents in that time including Enrique Marin and Brian Barbarena however is only loss is in his previous Welterweight bout.
Gall is the bigger and more physical guy and logic says that he takes Northcutt down and should be able to submit him or tap him out. However “Super” Sage is faster, stronger and has been training with UFC Welterweight Champion Tyrone Woodley who’s praised him continuously since. Gall’s hype will come crashing down as he meets someone who’s a whole new level compared to his previous opponents so Sage as an underdog looks like a steal to me in this match up.
Tip: Sage Northcutt to win by KO/TKO or Submission at 15/8
Urijah Faber (33-10) 11/4 vs. Brad Pickett (25-12) 5/18 – Bantamweight
In his retirement fight, Urijah Faber will take on Brad Pickett in a fitting send off between two of the UFC’s longest serving Bantamweights in his hometown of Sacramento, California.
After losses to Dominick Cruz and Jimmie Rivera, “The California Kid” has called time on his career and will leave to focus on the Team Alpha Male gym and fight team he has built over the years. Despite being 37-years-old and losing some of his sharpness, Faber is still a phenomenal athlete and will have a speed advantage.
Pickett is a talented technical boxer and is really undervalued at such long odds coming into this fight. However at 38-years-old and having lost four of his last five fights, this could also be his last outing which leaves both guys with nothing to really fight for and Pickett’s only path to victory being if he has just “One-Punch” more in his locker.
Faber has never had the greatest power and that hasn’t changed so if he wins it will probably be over the distance for a victorious farewell and there’s small profits to be had going in that direction.
Tip: Urijah Faber to win by Decision at 3/2
Alan Jouban (14-4) 11/10 vs. Mike Perry (9-0) 3/4 – Welterweight
Many people aren’t keen on Mike Perry over his chequered past but it’s getting harder for people not to respect him as he continues to back up the trash talk and flash persona with spectacular performances. He possesses real power in his hands and against Danny Roberts, showed he was happy to come through strikes to land ones of his own. Although rough around the edges, the 25-year-old can develop into something special after nine wins by KO/TKO in his nine professional fights.
Despite his boyish good looks, Alan Jouban is 35-years-old and although he’s finished a lot of opponents in the past, they tend to be lower level opposition or grapplers who aren’t offering anything in return. The Louisiana native is a good all-rounder and likes to close the distance to land elbows when possible. He’s won seven of his nine UFC fights and will be Perry’s biggest test to date.
Perry has been able to match all of his opponents on the feet so far and with an incredible chin, will be happy to stand and trade with Jouban. I think he can turn this into a dirty brawling style fight whilst he lands big power shots on the inside to continue his ascent up the rankings and in people’s estimations.
Tip: Mike Perry to win by KO/TKO at 11/8
Paul Craig (8-0) 9/5 vs. Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) 4/9 – Light-Heavyweight
Making his debut with an undefeated record, Light-Heavyweight prospect Paul Craig comes from the British regional scene having made his name winning the BAMMA Light-Heavyweight Title. Having won seven of his eight fights by submission, grappling seems to be his strength although has a respectable stand up game to back it up.
“Frankenstein” is an apt name for Luis Henrique da Silva as the Brazilian has a little bit of everything in his skill set and possesses a crazy style which although can look genius when it goes right, can look downright insane when it goes wrong. He’s a big guy for the division and has looked good in his two UFC performances winning by both KO and submission.
This fight’s really hard to predict due Craig being an unknown quantity at this level and da Silva still having a lot of holes in his game that can be exploited. I would normally pass on a fight like this however as a fellow Scotsman, I’ll pull on my patriotic pants and take some action on “Bearjew” to bring the victory home.
Tip: Paul Craig to win by Submission at 17/4
Cole Miller (21-10) 20/21 vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2) 20/23 – Featherweight
Cole Miller is not a happy man as of late. After 19 fights in the UFC over almost a decade, Miller is extremely pi***d off at only receiving a nominal payment for the cancelled Manilla event where this fight was originally scheduled. Now a little bit older and looking a bit tired, Miller is without a win in his last three fights however they were by no means terrible performances and included taking Max Holloway to a judges’ decision.
Mizuto Hirota is a talented fighter who’s been around for a long time and fought to a draw with Teruto Ishihara in the final of Road to UFC: Japan to be awarded a contract. Having not fought since September 2015, the 35-year-old may struggle to get into his rhythm against a fired up Miller.
Miller has both a seven inch height and reach advantage which I feel is significant enough to be a factor in this fight. He should be able to keep Hirota at distance with a jab and use his reach to pick away at him with strikes. If the fight goes to the ground then I also think the American is better in that area and although risky, I can see him adding another win to his record.
Tip: Cole Miller to win by decision at 33/10
Bryan Barberena (12-3) 29/10 vs. Colby Covington (10-1) 5/19 – Welterweight
Colby Covington comes into this fight as the big favourite, a trend which seems to be common place in his match-ups. The highly-rated wrestler is sometimes labelled as boring however nobody can doubt the effectiveness of his game and he shows great focus to stick to his strengths even when boos ring around the arena. Covington is good at grinding down opponents until he can have his way with them in the later rounds and looks a bright prospect for the future.
After defeating both Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, Bryan Barberena is establishing a name for himself as a prospect killer. He has a terrific style which allows him to pressure opponents and force them into making mistakes whilst he lands big shots on the way in and has good BJJ for when the fight hits the ground.
Although Barberena is a tough opponent and used to upsetting the odds, stylistically this fight is terrible for him and I can see Covington using his wrestling to control and frustrate “Bam Bam” over the three rounds. I think Barberena is tough enough to fight until the end so Covington by decision seems to be the way to go.
Tip: Colby Covington by Unanimous Decision at 5/4
James Moontasri (9-4) 10/11 vs. Alex Morono (12-3) 10/11 – Welterweight
James Moontasri is an entertaining fighter who has alternated wins and losses so far in his UFC career. With a background in Taekwondo and training alongside UFC legend Anderson Silva, Moontasri has strong striking abilities and his only weakness seems to be when he is taken down and dominated by talented grapplers like Kevin Lee and Alex Oliveira.
That won’t be a problem for him against Alex Morono who’s likely to stand in front of him and want to trade in the stand up. He’s coming back from an injury and a previous victory over the retired Kyle Noke showed he has the power to do damage to opponents. He is quite sloppy and when he throws power shots they tend to either loop in or come from wild wide angles.
I feel confident backing Moontasri here as with his abilities and how highly technical his striking is, he can hit Morono at will as his opponent chases shadows. I really don’t understand the underdog price on Monntasri but I won’t complain and jump on it.
Tip: James Moontasri to win by KO/TKO or Submission at 11/8
Josh Emmett (10-0) 4/7 vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1) 29/20 – Lightweight
A member of Team Alpha Male, Josh Emmett looked very promising in his UFC debut against Jon Tuck where he dominated and was in control until breaking his finger towards the end of the second round and was forced to hang on for the win through a difficult third round. He has very fluid movement and accurate striking making him a dangerous undefeated prospect in the Lightweight division.
Ex-pro hockey player Scott Holtzman is already in his thirties and came late to the sport of MMA so is still developing even late in his career. His only defeat in UFC so far came to Drew Dober who terrorised him with a superior wrestling game which could be a big problem for him against Emmett.
I’ve really liked Josh Emmett since that debut victory and I’ve been waiting to see another performance since his injury. He’s everything Holtzman will struggle with and will use his crisp striking and wrestling pedigree to make it a rough night for his opponent.
Tip: Josh Emmett to win by Decision at 3/2
Leslie Smith (8-7-1) 49/20 vs. Irene Aldana (7-2) 10/31 – Bantamweight
Training out of the same Lobos Gym in Mexico as Alexa Grasso, it’s now Irene Aldana’s turn to make her UFC debut after impressing whilst in Invicta and battling to a 4-1 record during her time there. Her only defeat came to Invicta Bantamweight champion Tonya Evinger for the vacant title whilst she holds victories over Faith Van Duin and Jessamyn Duke. With five out of her seven wins coming by KO/TKO, she knows how to finish her opponents.
Leslie Smith is a very tough veteran who will look to bounce back from a TKO defeat to Cris Cyborg and has shown before the kind of resiliency that makes her such a big challenge to those hoping to make their way into the top-15 of the Women’s Bantamweight division.
Aldana mainly finishes her opponents in rounds one or two and it worries me that Smith will be able to weather the storm and really test the mettle of the newcomer later in the fight. I think it will go the distance and the Mexican should get her first win in the UFC but Smith won’t make it easy for her.
Tip: Irene Aldana to win by Decision at 11/8
Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) 4/9 vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) 9/5 – Bantamweight
Long-time UFC veteran Eddie Wineland can be extremely hit or miss but put on a great performance in his last fight against Frankie Saenz in July where he stopped all takedowns, brought the firefight to his opponent and got the KO win. Despite being around for a very long time, the 32-year-old still has plenty of time to make a run towards the top end of the rankings.
Takeya Mizugaki has struggled since losing to Dominick Cruz and hasn’t looked himself in subsequent losses to Aljamain Sterling and Cody Garbrandt. A gatekeeper of the Bantamweight division, Mizugaki seems to fare much better over those who are willing to follow him to the ground and grapple with him.
Wineland should be too strong on the feet for Mizugaki and could even get the finish however with his patchy form over the years, it may be best to add him to other bets or to avoid this fight all together. The price for the decision however looks good over a notoriously tough Japanese opponent and I just can’t help myself.
Tip: Eddie Wineland to win by Decision at 3/1
Fredy Serrano (3-1) 23/20 vs. Hector Sandoval (12-3) 5/7 – Flyweight
Another fighter from Team Alpha Male, Hector Sandoval was placed out of his depth in his UFC debut when he stepped in for Flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson against Wilson Reis and was smothered and beaten by a much bigger opponent. Sandoval is an aggressive wrestler who throws heavy looping shots which can at times wildly miss their mark.
Fredy Serrano is very explosive and scary athlete who holds tremendous power for the weight division and impressive speed. The downside is that he lacks fight IQ preferring to use risky axe kicks to maintain the distance and using forward rolls and employing clowning around tactics in his last fight against Ryan Benoit.
With Sandoval training with the best, look for him to be battle ready and fired up for this event alongside so many of his teammates and looks to be a solid pick to do the business on the night.
Tip: Hector Sandoval to win in Round 2 at 15/2
Sultan Aliev (13-2) 27/20 vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) 8/13 – Welterweight
Despite all his success in the Russian regionals, Sultan Aliev has never impressed during his stints in either Bellator or UFC and I can’t see that changing here. The Combat Sambo world champion has been out for nearly two years and returns to the octagon for the first time since being on the receiving end of a vicious KO from Kenny Robertson. The Russian is only concerned with one thing and that’s pulling an opponent to the ground so can be frustrating to watch as he refuses to let go of any grip he gets of his opponents.
Bojan Velickovic now trains at Elevation Fight Team in Denver, Colorado and has looked underwhelming in his previous two outings. At the age of 26, Velickovic is at the moment still developing and has plenty of time to show the progress he is making each time.
I can see a boring opener here with Velickovic doing enough to neutralise Aliev’s tedious offense and will do enough to grind out a decision victory to start the event off with a whimper.
Tip: Bojan Velickovic to win by Unanimous Decision at 9/4
All odds provided by Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing
