SHARE
Manuwa, UFC London
Jimi Manuwa - Photo Credit: Mark Blundell

Welcome to a brand new MMA Plus Betting Guide with your resident degenerate gambler Stuart Rodger. This week we take a look at UFC London, or UFC Fight Night 107, live from the O2 Arena in London, England and the main event which will see a battle between hometown hero Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson in an important bout at the top of the Light-Heavyweight rankings.

After the first quarter of the 2017, we found ourselves off to a decent start at +15pts profit over all bets with clear profit for every event of 2017 so far up until taking small hits in the past few weeks. We were back to winning ways however backing Darren Elkins at UFC 209 as well as successfully picking a few underdogs last week.

UFC London Main Event

Jimi Manuwa (16-2) 2/3 vs. Corey Anderson (9-2) 5/4 – Light-Heavyweight

Although many have shown displeasure towards the name value of UFC London’s main event, there’s no denying the massive implications the result of this bout has for the Light-Heavyweight division with both Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson one win away from being in the title picture.

Manuwa looked impressive his last time out at UFC 204 where he was able to knock out fellow contender Ovince St. Preux in the second round. With 14 of his 16 wins coming via KO/TKO, “Poster Boy” possesses some serious power and is capable of stopping any opponent inside the distance however his cardio has been questionable in previous fights and could play a factor over five rounds.

Anderson is the opposite of Manuwa, with wrestling being what his style is all about, setting this up as a grappler vs. striker match-up. “Overtime” has shown an ability to grind out decisions over talented strikers and outwork them with greater cardio, however after being dropped by Shogun Rua and finished by Gian Villante, his ability to take a heavy shot is doubtful.

I like hometown favourite Manuwa in this spot here as long as he can stop the takedowns and it’s only sensible to take the Brit to get the job done inside the distance with another KO/TKO finish to add to his collection in the second round.

Tip: Jimi Manuwa to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 at 6/1 (single)

 

UFC London Main Card

Gunnar Nelson (15-2-1) 2/7 vs. Alan Jouban (15-4) 27/10 – Welterweight

Brad Pickett (25-13) 20/29 vs. Marlon Vera (10-3-1) 6/5 – Catchweight (140lbs)

Makwan Amirkhani (13-2) 10/11 vs. Arnold Allen (11-1) 10/11 – Featherweight

In the co-main event, another ‘striker vs. grappler’ match-up is on show as BJJ black belt Gunnar Nelson takes on the hard hitting Alan Jouban with the Icelandic fighter coming in as favourite. Although understandable, Nelson can be a little one dimensional and although he possesses solid karate skills in the stand-up, could be caught out by “Brahma’s” constant pressure. If he gets the takedown, Jouban is experienced enough to defend himself but Nelson’s credentials put him on another level when it comes to the ground game but at these prices, a punt on the Louisiana native may not be the worst bet.

Also on the card, Brad Pickett comes in as a sentimental favourite in his retirement fight against short-notice replacement Marlon Vera, and with Pickett now at the end of his career, he has issues with his chin and has been dropped repeatedly over his last few fights. Although he still retains good hands with his boxing background, I worry if Vera clips him with anything solid, his night may end in disappointing fashion.

In a match-up between Europe’s two next big Featherweight prospects, Makwan Amirkhani takes on Arnold Allen as both aim to take the next step in their careers and get a defining win under their belts in London. This fight is as close in practice as the odds show with both fighters having clear paths to victory however I favour the paths of the Finnish grappler. Amirkhani’s wrestling heavy style can breakdown Allen’s takedown defence and over three rounds, I see “Mr Finland” suffocating his opponent and grinding out a win on his terms while frustrating the young Brit.

Tip: Makwan Amirkhani to win and Marlon Vera to win by KO/TKO or Sub at 11/2 (double)

 

UFC London Prelims

Joseph Duffy (15-2) 1/6 vs. Reza Madadi (14-4) 17/4 – Lightweight

Francimar Barroso (18-5) 3/2 vs. Darren Stewart (7-0) 8/15 – Light-Heavyweight

Daniel Omielanczuk (19-6-1) 3/2 vs. Timothy Johnson (10-3) 8/15 – Heavyweight

Teemu Packalen (8-1) 37/20 vs. Marc Diakiese (11-0) 10/23 – Lightweight

Tom Breese (10-1) 10/29 vs. Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2) 23/10 – Middleweight

Vicente Luque (11-5-1) 10/13 vs. Leon Edwards (12-3) 11/10 – Welterweight

Ian Entwistle (9-3) 13/4 vs. Brett Johns (13-0) 4/17 – Bantamweight

Scott Askham (14-3) 2/3 vs. Brad Scott (10-4) 5/4 – Middleweight

Lina Lansberg (6-2) 5/16 vs. Lucie Pudilova (6-1) 5/2 – Women’s Bantamweight

The preliminary bouts this week sees more close match-ups with very few big favourite other than Joseph Duffy, available at the laughable price of 1/7. Although I’m not keen on many of the underdogs, there’s still plenty of value to be found throughout.

Firstly, I like Timothy Johnson as I expect him to get into a physical grappling war for dominance and as an All-American wrestler, I think Johnson will get the upper hand over Daniel Omielanczuk. I expect Johnson to be more clinical wherever the fight goes as I consider him to be in a bracket above Omielanczuk in terms of quality and that should shine through.

Adding to my prelims line is Marc Diakiese, who after going three rounds and having to dig deep against Frankie Perez, will have improved once more with that vital experience. Still a young fighter, Diakiese will have to watch for the submission game of Teemu Packalen in London however he showed last time out that his own ground game can perfectly partner his deadly and high impact striking.

Rounding it off, I like Brett Johns to find a finish over the baffling style of Ian Entwistle. Entwistle will go for his heel hooks as usual and when he fails to grab hold of them, he always looks lost. Johns is far too good a fighter to give that kind of opportunity to and I expect him to capitalise and get the finish.

Also, Scott Askham should prove he’s far more versatile in his style than opponent Brad Scott and should secure the win with not too much difficulty in front of the dedicated fans following the Doncaster fighter.

Tip: Scott Askham and Timothy Johnson to win/Brett Johns and Marc Diakiese to win by KO/TKO or Sub at 8/1 (fourfold)

BONKERS BONUS BET – Lucie Pudilova and Reza Madadi to win by decision at 44/1 (double)

All odds and markets provided by Ladbrokes.com and correct at time of writing